XPost: alt.global-warming   
      
   EXECUTIVE SUMMARY:   
   - Newspapers are (again) full of stories about "anomalous" happenings   
     in Antarctica. Some place was record cold.   
   - The data from the 1950 shows annual min temps in Antarctica are   
     declining rapidly.   
   - But at the same time annual average min temps are increasing rapidly.   
   - Journalists and hillbillies yet again have been tricked by how   
     averages work.   
   - Not only is the Antarctic a continent at extreme latitudes, it is a   
     continent of high elevations.  Extremes are amplified in all kinds of   
     ways and we should all be not surprised that outliers can be more   
     outlier-y as time goes by.   
     But even so average temps go right on rising in line with the rest   
     of the world, modulo polar amplification -- the tendency for polar   
     regions to warm about 2x faster than the global average   
     because AGW don't quit in winter or nighttime like the sun does.   
      
      
   Have been noticing a lot of these type of things:   
      
     South Pole posts most severe cold season on record, a surprise in a ...   
     The Washington Post, 01 Oct 2021 23:05Z   
     The average temperature at the Amundsen-Scott South Pole Station   
     between April and Sept, a frigid minus-78 degrees (minus-61   
     Celsius), was...   
      
      
   It seems hillbillies are not the only ones that don't understand what   
   Antarctica is. Perhaps the mental model journalists are using is   
   "roughly like the US48". But no, it isn't.   
      
   Not only is the Antarctic at an extreme latitude, it is also a huge   
   continent. The further from the ocean, the more extreme the temperatures.   
      
   If that weren't enough, most of the continent is at extreme altitudes   
   -- 3000m to 4000m.   
   For each 1 km in elev we expect the ambient temperature to drop 5-10C.   
   This is why airlines need to have great a/c or passengers would   
   arrive as ice-blocks.   
   High altitudes are also a recipe for extreme swings in temperature.   
      
   So it is no surprise some stations in the Antarctic see big   
   negative numbers for their temperatures. And no big surprise year to   
   year extreme lows can become more and more extreme.   
   This might be further amplified by a record that only goes back to   
   the 1950s and not 1650s like some parts of the wider world.   
      
   But extreme lows are just that -- extremes. Outliers.  They are not   
   "average" or "typical".   
      
   The average temperature of the continent is increasing, and   
   increasing faster than the world average.   
      
   If we look at the GHCN met stations for lats 60-90S and just do a   
   "no fiddlin widda nummers" hillbilly type average of the daily minimum   
   temperatures (TMIN) year by year and find:   
      
      
   Year	Avg Antarctic TMIN deg C   
           (58 locations from GHCN v3)   
   1954	-16.4502   
   1955	-13.6227   
   1956	-22.3949   
   1957	-23.5781   
   1958	-22.8924   
   1959	-21.7169   
   1960	-21.9339   
   1961	-20.664   
   1962	-21.2948   
   1963	-21.0083   
   1964	-22.2238   
   1965	-22.7139   
   1966	-26.6514   
   1967	-26.8548   
   1968	-28.0013   
   1969	-20.9729   
   1970	-18.9807   
   1971	-17.0016   
   1972	-17.362   
   1973	-17.6208   
   1974	-17.3071   
   1975	-18.8002   
   1976	-17.7157   
   1977	-16.9576   
   1978	-17.4246   
   1979	-19.475   
   1980	-18.5425   
   1981	-15.6921   
   1982	-18.8992   
   1983	-17.2787   
   1984	-16.9378   
   1985	-15.7835   
   1986	-14.6476   
   1987	-14.5996   
   1988	-13.6112   
   1989	-13.4817   
   1990	-14.7149   
   1991	-14.8549   
   1992	-15.4195   
   1993	-15.059   
   1994	-11.8136   
   1995	-15.0389   
   1996	-11.1248   
   1997	-12.738   
   1998	-12.7646   
   1999	-13.0097   
   2000	-12.8669   
   2001	-12.9656   
   2002	-12.4601   
   2003	-11.4131   
   2004	-12.7545   
   2005	-13.7894   
   2006	-12.9591   
   2007	-14.5071   
   2008	-14.161   
   2009	-14.655   
   2010	-14.4311   
   2011	-14.4339   
   2012	-13.4915   
   2013	-12.7282   
   2014	-13.2168   
   2015	-14.0971   
   2016	-13.6024   
   2017	-12.1884   
      
      
   No surprise there is a warming trend. This hillbilly avg has a warming   
   trend of 15 degrees per century. Which is what happens when you use   
   hillbilly methods. Most scientists would say the warming rate is around   
   1.8C per century, maybe increasing a bit as time goes by.   
   (See Berkeley Earth for all the gory details).   
      
   But at the same time we can look at the loest of all temps for each year   
   and SURPRISE:   
      
   year	min TMIN   
   1954	-30   
   1955	-30   
   1956	-61.1   
   1957	-74.4   
   1958	-74.4   
   1959	-78.9   
   1960	-77.2   
   1961	-74.4   
   1962	-75.6   
   1963	-78.9   
   1964	-72.8   
   1965	-80.6   
   1966	-85   
   1967	-84.4   
   1968	-86.1   
   1969	-77.8   
   1970	-75.6   
   1971	-75.6   
   1972	-73.3   
   1973	-73.9   
   1974	-77.2   
   1975	-75   
   1976	-76.1   
   1977	-75   
   1978	-77.8   
   1979	-76.1   
   1980	-74.4   
   1981	-76.7   
   1982	-82.8   
   1983	-75.6   
   1984	-75.6   
   1985	-75   
   1986	-79.4   
   1987	-72.8   
   1988	-72.8   
   1989	-72.8   
   1990	-82.6   
   1991	-82.9   
   1992	-74.5   
   1993	-84.2   
   1994	-64.4   
   1995	-80.6   
   1996	-73   
   1997	-84.6   
   1998	-85.6   
   1999	-81.9   
   2000	-81.7   
   2001	-78.1   
   2002	-80.3   
   2003	-54.4   
   2004	-82.1   
   2005	-85.4   
   2006	-79.3   
   2007	-81.3   
   2008	-84.1   
   2009	-80.1   
   2010	-81.8   
   2011	-78.7   
   2012	-84.2   
   2013	-79.1   
   2014	-80.8   
   2015	-81.1   
   2016	-81.6   
   2017	-78.2   
      
   There's a strong cooling of about 11 deg per cent.   
      
   The average daily min is warming at an horrific rate yet the lowest TMIN   
   each year is decreasing at an horrific rate.   
      
   No surprise, atall atall.   
      
   It's a place where horrific things happen alla time.   
      
   --   
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