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   Update: On Oct. 25, NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center released an   
   "updated prediction" for Solar Cycle 25. The new forecast more closely   
   matches the timeframe laid out in this feature and agrees with the   
   predictions of experts who spoke to Live Science about the upcoming solar   
   maximum.   
      
   From a distance, the sun may seem calm and steady. But zoom in, and our   
   home star is actually in a perpetual state of flux, transforming over time   
   from a uniform sea of fire to a chaotic jumble of warped plasma and back   
   again in a recurring cycle.   
      
   Every 11 years or so, the sun's magnetic field gets tangled up like a ball   
   of tightly wound rubber bands until it eventually snaps and completely   
   flips — turning the north pole into the south pole and vice versa. In the   
   lead-up to this gargantuan reversal, the sun amps up its activity:   
   belching out fiery blobs of plasma, growing dark planet-size spots and   
   emitting streams of powerful radiation.   
      
   This period of increased activity, known as solar maximum, is also a   
   potentially perilous time for Earth, which gets bombarded by solar storms   
   that can disrupt communications, damage power infrastructure, harm some   
   living creatures (including astronauts) and send satellites plummeting   
   toward the planet.   
      
   And some scientists think the next solar maximum may be coming sooner —   
   and be much more powerful — than we thought.   
      
   Originally, scientists predicted that the current solar cycle would peak   
   in 2025. But a bumper crop of sunspots, solar storms and rare solar   
   phenomena suggest solar maximum could arrive by the end of this year at   
   the earliest — and several experts told Live Science we are poorly   
   prepared.   
      
   Related: 10 signs the sun is gearing up for its explosive peak — the solar   
   maximum   
      
   What causes the solar cycle?   
   Approximately every 11 years, the sun goes from a low point in solar   
   activity, known as solar minimum, to solar maximum and back again. It's   
   not clear exactly why the sun's cycles last this long, but astronomers   
   have noted the pattern ever since the first, aptly named Solar Cycle 1,   
   which occurred between 1755 and 1766. The current cycle, Solar Cycle 25,   
   officially began in December 2019, according to NASA.   
      
   So what causes our home star's fluctuation? "It all comes down to the   
   sun's magnetic field," Alex James, a solar physicist at University College   
   London in the U.K., told Live Science.   
      
   At solar minimum, the sun's magnetic field is strong and organized, with   
   two clear poles like a normal dipole magnet, James said. The magnetic   
   field acts as a "giant forcefield" that contains the sun's superheated   
   plasma, or ionized gas, close to the surface, suppressing solar activity,   
   he added.   
      
   But the magnetic field slowly gets tangled, with some regions becoming   
   more magnetized than others, James said. As a result, the sun's magnetic   
   field gradually weakens, and solar activity begins to ramp up: Plasma   
   rises from the star's surface and forms massive magnetized horseshoes,   
   known as coronal loops, that pepper the sun's lower atmosphere. These   
   fiery ribbons can then snap as the sun's magnetic field realigns,   
   releasing bright flashes of light and radiation, known as solar flares.   
   Sometimes, flares also bring enormous, magnetized clouds of fast-moving   
   particles, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs).   
      
   A few years after the maximum, the sun's magnetic field "snaps" and then   
   completely flips. This ushers in the end of the cycle and the beginning of   
   a new solar minimum, James said.   
      
   Related: Could a solar storm ever destroy Earth?   
      
   To determine where we are in the solar cycle, researchers monitor sunspots   
   — darker, cooler, circular patches of our local star's surface where   
   coronal loops form.   
      
   "Sunspots appear when strong magnetic fields poke through the surface of   
   the sun," James said. "By looking at those sunspots we can get an idea of   
   how strong and complex the sun's magnetic field is at that moment."   
      
   Sunspots are almost completely absent at solar minimum and increase in   
   numbers until a peak at solar maximum, but there's a lot of variation from   
   cycle to cycle.   
      
   "Every cycle is different," James said.   
      
   Solar Cycle 25   
   In April 2019, the Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel, which is made up of   
   dozens of scientists from NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric   
   Administration (NOAA), released its forecast for Solar Cycle 25,   
   suggesting that the solar maximum would likely begin sometime in 2025 and   
   would be comparable in size to the maximum of Solar Cycle 24, which peaked   
   unusually late between mid-2014 and early 2016 and was quite weak compared   
   with past solar maximums.   
      
   But from the beginning, the forecast seemed off. For instance, the number   
   of observed sunspots has been much higher than predicted.   
      
   In December 2022, the sun reached an eight-year sunspot peak. And in   
   January 2023, scientists observed more than twice as many sunspots as NASA   
   had predicted (143 observed versus 63 estimated), with the numbers staying   
   nearly as high over the following months. In total, the number of observed   
   sunspots has exceeded the predicted number for 27 months in a row.   
      
   While the bounty of sunspots is a major red flag, they are not the only   
   evidence solar maximum could be here soon.   
      
   Another key indicator of solar activity is the number and intensity of   
   solar flares. In 2022, there were fivefold more C-class and M-class solar   
   flares than there were in 2021, and year on year, the number of the most   
   powerful, X-class solar flares is also increasing, according to   
   SpaceWeatherLive.com. The first half of 2023 logged more X-class flares   
   than in all of 2022, and at least one has directly hit Earth. (Solar flare   
   classes include A, B, C, M and X, with each class being at least 10 times   
   more powerful than the previous one.)   
      
   Related: 10 solar storms that blew us away in 2022   
      
   Solar flares can also bring geomagnetic storms — major disturbances of   
   Earth's magnetosphere caused by solar wind or CMEs. For instance, on March   
   24, a "stealth" CME hit Earth without warning and triggered the most   
   powerful geomagnetic storm in more than six years, which created vast   
   auroras, or northern lights, that were visible in more than 30 U.S.   
   states. An overall increase in the number of geomagnetic storms this year   
   has also caused the temperature in the thermosphere — the second-highest   
   layer of Earth's atmosphere - to reach a 20-year peak.   
      
   Rare solar phenomena also become increasingly common near solar maximum —   
   and several have happened in recent months. On March 9, a 60,000-mile-tall   
   (96,560 kilometers) plasma waterfall rose above and then fell back towards   
      
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