From: physfitfreak@gmail.com   
      
   On 12/5/24 1:30 AM, Physfitfreak wrote:   
   > In Syria the rapid spread of American, Israeli, British, Turkish, and   
   > Wahhabi backed terrorists have slowed but not to zero. And if there was   
   > such a plan as capturing Edlib while all terrorists were out and spread   
   > away, the picture is now different. Assad's forces could not reach   
   > Edlib. It got bugged down in Hamah and looks like Hamah is getting   
   > surrounded by terrorist forces as we speak. If Hamah falls Syrians are   
   > fucked.   
      
      
      
      
   - Yep. Hamah fell. Syrian Army instead of fighting just run away without   
   even packing. They don't have it in them to fight. Syria is fucked.   
      
   I see no sign of Iranians or Iraqis or Lebanon's militia helping them.   
   This is for a good reason. Iran did send a few military advisors but I   
   don't know if they really engaged at all. The army is running away from   
   battle fields too fast to allow time to design good plans based on   
   situation on the ground that stays one fucking day the same. So these   
   advisors are useless.   
      
   And Russia is throwing like 4 bombs a day :( No ground troops.   
      
   Syrians really wanted others fight the war for them. Assad had 5 years   
   to improve Syria's defenses and all they was in-fighting between various   
   tribes. You cannot have a stable country built on a tribal system.   
   Assad's father knew that, and on seeing infighting would destroy both   
   sides! He did that in this same city of Hamah in 1982 when Israel had   
   attacked Lebanon and intended to continue inside Syria (and after that   
   inside Iraq). Hafez Assad killed 15000 tribal warring people in Hamah in   
   that year to suppress the infighting! That's how Syrian government could   
   live after that. You can't have such tribal issues in sensitive times.   
      
   Well, his son didn't want to do that to his countrymen unless the tribes   
   picked up arms against Syrian government. So BOTH TIMES he committed to   
   action when it was too late.   
      
   If you ask me, Syrians will turn into a nation governed by another   
   country. They can't stand on their own feet. Just like Israelis.   
   Israelis are also tribal people to the core and always need another   
   country to take care of them. This has been so from ancient times when   
   they needed Cyrus to help them even be, and now they need Europe and USA   
   combined to help them be!   
      
   So it won't be "Israel" who'll get the southern areas of Syria. Iran   
   will not let them. Northern parts of Syria would go to Turkey. Russia   
   will get a bit of shore area with the excuse of protecting their base there.   
      
   Heck Nazis want to get Iran divided up too, but that's a dream that will   
   turn into decades long nightmare for them, and then they lift their   
   sorry asses and leave. And when they leave, you won't find an Israel or   
   any other Nazi base anywhere in the region. Iran stays. She has a very   
   different texture from a tribal one.   
      
   Iraqis are tribal also, and after Syria it'll be their turn. Like Syria,   
   they were also part of Turkey till WWI.   
      
      
   - Iran just now offered Syria two brigades of her military forces within   
   two weeks on one condition: Syrian Army must begin holding their   
   positions. No retreats.   
      
   "Brigade" is not exactly its equivalent in Iranian military system which   
   is "lashgar", but it is close. Each lashgar is about 4 to 5 thousand   
   troops of various "gordan"s (battalions, kind of) which itself divides   
   into various "dasteh"s (platoons, kind of), etc and etc. Lashgar is a   
   force to reckon with. It's not a joke! And two of them are offered.   
      
   But...   
      
   I don't think this materializes. A Syrian soldier doesn't know what   
   "Syria" even is. He can only and only fight for his own tribe. I said   
   what Soleymany mentioned about them after first hand close observation.   
   "They're useless", he said.   
      
   And Iran knows that and does not want to fight the Syrian's own fight   
   for them. That's why that condition was placed on the offer. If Syrians   
   pull themselves up and fight as they should, they'll get a chance to win   
   with a major help from Iran. Otherwise... it'll be other countries   
   governing those people.   
      
   --- SoupGate-DOS v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)