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   seattle.politics      Whats happening in the land of Nirvana      102,158 messages   

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   Message 101,261 of 102,158   
   a425couple to All   
   Fight: Inside the Wildest Battle for the   
   16 Apr 25 09:58:19   
   
   [continued from previous message]   
      
   thus quick to switch to Kamala Harris when the time came. For example,   
   Donna Brazile (a well-known pundit and campaign manager) and convention   
   chair Minyon Moore were “part of a larger group of Black women   
   operatives — calling themselves ‘the colored girls’ ” — who had   
   helped   
   convince Biden to pick a Black woman vice presidential candidate in 2020.”   
      
   The authors write that this group, along with Joe Biden and the   
   Clintons, had worked hard to rebuild the party machinery in their own   
   image. Miss Brazile and former state legislator Bakari Sellers both   
   called party delegates throughout the South (many were black or from   
   black constituencies) and found that they were loyal to Joe Biden but   
   would switch to Kamala Harris if she took his place. Miss Harris was   
   also the only candidate who could legally inherit the money that the   
   Biden campaign had already raised.   
      
   The striking exception to black support for Kamala Harris was Barack   
   Obama. The authors claim he never had much faith in Joe Biden or Kamala   
   Harris. After the debate, he called Nancy Pelosi to talk about whether   
   the incumbent could still win, and pressed Mr. Biden himself in a tense   
   phone call about whether he still thought he could win. Mr. Obama, the   
   authors claim, did not believe in the party, and built up his own   
   organization during his political campaigns. He favored Gretchen Whitmer   
   or at least an accelerated primary to find a new candidate. Neither he   
   nor Nancy Pelosi believed in Miss Harris, and even the former president   
   was remarkably slow to endorse her after the switch.   
      
   None of this is very surprising. Mr. Obama was never a typical black   
   “machine” politician and famously lost to Bobby Rush in an early   
   congressional race. The secret of his appeal was that he was   
   “post-racial,” an illusion that did not die until his second term. His   
   (white) former staffers on the influential Pod Save America podcast were   
   the key figures who set off the flood of criticism that eventually drove   
   Joe Biden out of the race, and it is hard to believe they did not   
   reflect their former boss’s views. Barack Obama could appeal to white   
   voters in swing states and keep an iron grip on blacks — a trick Miss   
   Harris could not manage.   
      
   Joe Biden eventually decided not to run because he felt the party was   
   divided, not because he didn’t think he could win. However, his ego is   
   staggering, perhaps larger even than Donald Trump’s. At first, he balked   
   at endorsing Miss Harris because he wanted the headlines to be about   
   him, and he told his vice president that there must be “no daylight,   
   kid” between her campaign and his record. With Mr. Biden already   
   trailing Mr. Trump even before the debate, this crippled her campaign   
   before it started.   
      
   At the same time, though the authors (dubiously) claim that Miss Harris   
   did not want to be known for her race and sex, they point out that Mr.   
   Biden’s insistence on “no daylight” meant that those were all she could   
   tout as reasons to vote for her. Though Miss Harris prepared hard for   
   her debate with Donald Trump and arguably defeated him, her interviews   
   were often disastrous. The most damaging moment came in what should have   
   been a softball interview with “The View,” in which she said she could   
   not think of anything she would have done differently from Joe Biden.   
   The Trump campaign made it a campaign ad.   
      
   The authors write that Kamala Harris’s “sugar rush” surge after the   
   nomination was real but hit a ceiling. She took a narrow lead in some   
   polls, but it was statistically insignificant and driven by positive   
   media. Aside from the debate, there were no key moments on which to   
   build momentum. JD Vance’s easy defeat of Tim Walz in the   
   vice-presidential debate robbed the Harris campaign of perhaps its last   
   chance to save the campaign.   
      
   Racial politics may have been the main reason Tim Walz was picked. The   
   Trump campaign feared that Miss Harris would pick popular Pennsylvania   
   governor Josh Shapiro. However, Governor Shapiro is Jewish and   
   pro-Israel, and the Democrat coalition was already divided over the   
   Israeli response to the Hamas attack. Mr. Shapiro himself also may be   
   preparing to run in 2028, and didn’t seem eager to join the campaign. In   
   contrast, Tim Walz practically begged for the job, only to flub the debate.   
      
   However, the authors resist the idea that Miss Harris was doomed from   
   the start. Her surge was real, and the Trump campaign (and its volatile   
   chief) came dangerously close to tearing itself apart, with the   
   candidate showing signs of panic and almost turning on campaign heads   
   Susan Wiles and Chris LaCivita. What doomed Miss Harris, according to   
   the authors, is what they say doomed Mrs. Clinton in Shattered: There   
   was never a compelling reason for her candidacy or a central message.   
   Miss Harris was tied to Joe Biden and never explained why she was running.   
      
   In contrast, Mr. Trump’s message was clear. He stressed economic safety   
   (fighting inflation) and physical safety (fighting crime and illegal   
   immigration). The authors heap scorn on his infamous “they’re eating the   
   dogs, they’re eating the cats” claim about Haitians, but they concede it   
   still spoke to a basic worry about safety. Most people thought they knew   
   what Mr. Trump would do back in office.   
      
   Tactically, Mr. Trump’s campaign showed a flexibility that Miss Harris’s   
   lacked. With policies such as abolishing taxes on overtime and tips, and   
   stunts such as the McDonald’s photo op, Mr. Trump stayed in the news in   
   ways Miss Harris could not match. The Harris campaign could not seem to   
   operate without a script and seemed afraid to let its candidate speak   
   off-the-cuff. The Trump campaign (notably after some advice from son   
   Barron Trump) put the candidate on podcasts with Theo Von and Adin Ross,   
   appealing to independent male voters. The Trump campaign got some help   
   from Mr. Biden, who called Trump supporters “garbage.” That meant the   
   Trump campaign could turn the stupid joke at Madison Square Garden in   
   which a comedian compared Puerto Rico to floating garbage into another   
   chance for Mr. Trump to tout himself as a friend of workers.   
      
   Theo Von and Donald Trump   
   Exit poll results pose some challenges to white advocates who believe   
   demography is destiny. Mr. Trump’s share of Hispanic voters grew from 42   
   percent to 46 percent and Asians from 34 percent to 40 percent. He lost   
   women by only eight points, compared to 15 points in 2020. President   
   Trump also increased his rural base, doubling his margin to 30 percent.   
   He won a narrow victory in the suburbs, an improvement over 2020. His   
   gains among blacks (12 to 13 percent) and black men (19 to 21 percent)   
   were marginal.   
      
   Yet the real story of the Democrats is the story of the “black vote.”   
   Many Democratic politicians saw the problem emerging, but the Democrat   
   dependence on black politicians crippled them. Mr. Biden initially felt   
   confident about running again because most blacks in the party supported   
   him. Near the end of the book, Mr. Biden thanks Mr. Sharpton for his   
   stalwart support, before calling Nancy Pelosi a traitor. Because the   
   Democrats are so beholden to blacks, there could not be an alternative   
   to Miss Harris once Mr. Biden decided not to run. Indeed, the main   
   reason Miss Harris was even vice president was because black activists   
   (notably the “colored women” party workers) demanded that he pick a black.   
      
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
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