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   alignment that was not eternal,” said Élie Tenenbaum, director of the   
   Paris-based IFRI security studies center.   
      
   Since Trump came back to power in January, the clues of Washington’s   
   disengagement from — if not disdain of — Europe have been hard to ignore.   
      
   Trump’s disparaging comments about Europe earlier this month came only a   
   few days after a U.S. National Security Strategy made thinly-veiled   
   calls for regime change in European countries. A leaked longer version   
   of the document openly says the U.S. should pull Austria, Hungary, Italy   
   and Poland away from the EU.   
      
   In the months leading up to the strategy’s release, the Trump   
   administration has repeatedly cast doubt on America’s commitment to   
   NATO’s collective defense pact, Article 5 of the NATO charter, and   
   announced a U.S. troop reduction from frontline state Romania. Even more   
   strikingly, the U.S. threatened to annex Greenland by force and is   
   cozying up to Russia, including in peace talks to end the war in Ukraine.   
      
   Less than one year after Trump returned to the White House, influential   
   German voices — in one of Europe’s most transatlanticist countries — are   
   no longer looking at Washington as an ally. Denmark’s military   
   intelligence service has now classified the U.S. as a security risk.   
      
   In this context, smaller European nations expect the larger ones to step up.   
      
   “We need the bigger countries to lead the way,” a European defense   
   official from a mid-size nation emphasized in a private briefing.   
   “France has been consistent on that for quite some time, Germany is also   
   important. It’s always helpful if they lead by example.”   
      
   A Paris-based European diplomat echoed that call for French leadership:   
   “We need Macron to take the initiative [on European defense], who else   
   is going to do it if not France?” Another European official said France   
   could become a “political and military hub,” adding that Paris is ready   
   to lead together with other capitals such as London, Berlin, Rome and   
   Warsaw.   
      
   Since the war in Ukraine started in 2022, Paris has pivoted to Europe   
   and reinvested in NATO. For decades, Paris had neglected the alliance —   
   rejoining its integrated military command only in 2009 — and focused   
   mainly on faraway lands such as the African Sahel region, from which the   
   French military ultimately had to withdraw after a series of coups d'état.   
      
   Now, France is leading a multinational NATO battlegroup in Romania, has   
   beefed up its military footprint in Estonia and is in talks to deploy   
   soldiers in Finland. For frontline states, having a nuclear power   
   present on their soil remains a crucial deterrent against Russia.   
      
   In a first test for Europe’s ability to think about its own security   
   without the U.S., Paris — otherwise a laggard in terms of military aid   
   to Kyiv — has set up alongside London a so-called coalition of the   
   willing to plan security guarantees for post-war Ukraine. That’s a   
   significant step in European-led defense planning and France’s   
   leadership role has been welcomed in European capitals.   
      
   However, many of them are still reluctant to deploy military assets to   
   Ukraine without American backing.   
      
   While the French elite has seen this moment coming, not everyone in   
   France is on board, at least not yet.   
      
   At this year’s Congress of France’s mayors — an influential gathering   
   held annually in Paris — Mandon told the country’s local elected   
   officials to ready their constituents for a potential war against Russia   
   in the coming years.   
      
   Standing on a white, round platform in front of French and EU flags, he   
   warned them that France is in danger unless it’s prepared to sacrifice.   
   “If our country falters because it is not prepared to accept losing its   
   children …[or] … to suffer economically because priorities will go to   
   defense production,” he said, “If we are not prepared for that, then we   
   are at risk. But I think we have the moral fortitude.”   
      
   About 24 hours later, that was all the country was talking about.   
      
   Far-right and far-left parties alike accused Mandon of war-mongering and   
   overstepping. It’s not up to him to speak to the mayors, they argued;   
   his job is to follow political orders. Even in Emmanuel Macron’s camp,   
   lawmakers privately admitted the general’s wording was ill-advised, even   
   if the message was valid. Eventually, the French president publicly   
   backed him.   
      
   France’s moment to demonstrate leadership is arriving at a challenging   
   time for Europe’s heavyweight.   
      
   “If you’re right too early, then you’re wrong,” a high-ranking French   
   military officer told me.   
      
   Macron’s ill-fated decision to call for a snap election in 2024 has   
   embroiled the country in a political crisis that is still unresolved,   
   and the far-right, NATO-skeptic, EU-skeptic National Rally is on the   
   rise and could come to power as soon as 2027.   
      
   “Intellectually, we are mentally equipped to understand what is   
   happening in terms of burden shifting, but we don’t really have the   
   means to lead the way at the European level,” said IFRI’s Tenenbaum,   
   adding that Germany is currently in a better position to do so.   
      
   “French leadership makes sense, it is logical given our relative weight,   
   experience, and capabilities, and European countries recognize this, but   
   there is a mismatch between words and deeds,” he added.   
      
   Even as Macron pledged more defense spending, it’s very unlikely that   
   France’s fragmented National Assembly will pass the 2026 budget by Dec. 31.   
      
   The French president said France’s military expenditures will increase   
   by €6.7 billion next year, bringing the country’s total defense spending   
   to more than €57.1 billion. In comparison, German lawmakers this week   
   greenlit €50 billion in weaponry procurement — Germany’s military   
   expenditures are expected to reach more than €82 billion next year.   
      
   “There will be a new balance between France and Germany in the coming   
   years,” said a third Paris-based European diplomat.   
      
   Since Macron’s snap election in 2024, European embassies in Paris   
   monitor France’s political situation like milk on the stove — especially   
   in the run-up to a presidential election in 2027 where the far-right   
   National Rally is currently leading the polls. While Germany and the   
   U.K. could also see nationalists come to power, their next general   
   elections aren’t scheduled before 2029.   
      
   Paris-based European diplomats speaking to POLITICO have compared a   
   presidency by National Rally leaders Marine Le Pen or Jordan Bardella to   
   Trump’s return to the White House in terms of changes for France’s   
   security and defense policy.   
      
   Just a day after Macron pledged that France would join a multinational   
   force to enforce peace in Ukraine if a deal is signed with Russia,   
   Bardella, leader of the National Rally, reaffirmed his party’s   
   opposition to sending French troops.   
      
   Marine Le Pen confirmed in September she would leave NATO’s integrated   
   command if she’s elected president. A second high-ranking French   
   military officer downplayed that pledge, arguing top French military   
   brass would be able to convince her otherwise. However, he conceded, the   
   National Rally’s refusal to send boots on the ground in Ukraine would   
   “become a problem” for the coalition of the willing.   
      
   Le Pen also vowed to completely overturn Macron’s offer to have a   
   discussion with European countries about how France’s nuclear deterrent   
      
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