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   From: pedro1940@progression.net   
      
     China's thirst for oil poses threat to U.S.   
      
     By Gal Luft | Special to Los Angeles Times    
      
         
     Sixty-seven years ago, oil-starved Japan embarked on an aggressive   
   expansionary policy designed to secure its growing energy needs, which   
   eventually led the nation into a world war. Today, another Asian power thirsts   
   for oil: China.   
      
     While the United States is absorbed in fighting the war on terror, the seeds   
   of what could be the next world war are quietly germinating. With 1.3 billion   
   people and an economy growing at a phenomenal 8 percent to 10 percent a year,   
   China, already a    
   net oil importer, is growing increasingly dependent on imported oil. Last   
   year, its auto sales grew 70 percent and its oil imports were up 30 percent   
   from the previous year, making it the world's No. 2 petroleum user after the   
   United States. By 2030,    
   China is expected to have more cars than the United States and import as much   
   oil as the U.S. does today.   
      
     Dependence on oil means dependence on the Middle East, home to 70 percent of   
   the world's proven reserves. With 60 percent of its oil imports coming from   
   the Middle East, China can no longer afford to sit on the sidelines of the   
   tumultuous region. Its    
   way of forming a footprint in the Middle East has been through providing   
   technology and components for weapons of mass destruction and their delivery   
   systems to unsavory regimes in places such as Iran, Iraq and Syria. A report   
   by the U.S.-China Economic    
   and Security Review Commission, a group created by Congress to monitor   
   U.S.-China relations, warned in 2002 that "this arms trafficking to these   
   regimes presents an increasing threat to U.S. security interests in the Middle   
   East." The report concludes: "   
   A key driver in China's relations with terrorist-sponsoring governments is its   
   dependence on foreign oil to fuel its economic development. This dependency is   
   expected to increase over the coming decade."   
      
     Optimists claim that the world oil market will be able to accommodate China   
   and that, instead of conflict, China's thirst could create mutual desire for   
   stability in the Middle East and thus actually bring Beijing closer to the   
   United States.   
      
     History shows the opposite: Superpowers find it difficult to coexist while   
   competing over scarce resources. The main bone of contention probably will   
   revolve around China's relations with Saudi Arabia, home to a quarter of the   
   world's oil. The Chinese    
   have already supplied the Saudis with intermediate-range ballistic missiles,   
   and they played a major role 20 years ago in a Saudi-financed Pakistani   
   nuclear effort that may one day leave a nuclear weapon in the hands of a   
   Taliban-type regime in Riyadh or    
   Islamabad.   
      
     Since 9-11, a deep tension in U.S.-Saudi relations has provided the Chinese   
   with an opportunity to win the heart of the House of Saud. The Saudis hear the   
   voices in the United States denouncing Saudi Arabia as a "kernel of evil" and   
   proposing that the    
   United States seize and occupy the kingdom's oil fields. The Saudis especially   
   fear that if their citizens again perpetrate a terror attack in the United   
   States, there would be no alternative for the U.S. but to terminate its   
   long-standing commitment to    
   the monarchy -- and perhaps even use military force against it.   
      
     The Saudis realize that to forestall such a scenario they can no longer rely   
   solely on the United States to defend the regime and must diversify their   
   security portfolio. In their search for a new patron, they might find China   
   the most fitting and    
   willing candidate.   
      
     The risk of Beijing's emerging as a competitor for influence in the Middle   
   East and a Saudi shift of allegiance are things Washington should consider as   
   it defines its objectives and priorities in the 21st century. Without a   
   comprehensive strategy    
   designed to prevent China from becoming an oil consumer on a par with the   
   United States, a superpower collision is in the cards. The good news is that   
   we are still in a position to halt China's slide into total dependency.   
      
     Unlike the United States, China's energy infrastructure is largely   
   underdeveloped and primarily coal-based. It has not yet invested in a   
   multibillion-dollar oil infrastructure. China is therefore in a better   
   position than the United States to bypass    
   oil in favor of next-generation fuels.   
      
     The United States should embark on a frank dialogue with China, conveying to   
   the Chinese the mutual benefits of circumventing oil and offering any   
   assistance required to curb China's growing appetite for it. A shift from oil   
   into other sources of    
   transportation energy -- such as bio-fuels or coal-based fuels, hydrogen and   
   natural gas -- could prevent future conflict and foster unprecedented   
   Sino-American cooperation with significant economic benefits for both   
   countries.   
      
     The Chinese would probably leapfrog oil if they could. Dependency of any   
   kind is foreign to their culture. But without substantial American   
   technological support, China is likely to follow the path of least resistance   
   and become a full-fledged oil    
   economy. Failure to address the issue with the utmost care would undercut all   
   of today's costly efforts by the United States to reform and stabilize the   
   Middle East.   
      
     This explosive, complex region cannot accommodate two major powers competing   
   not only over a barrel but also over the hearts, minds and allegiance of its   
   people.   
      
     Gal Luft, executive director of the Institute for the Analysis of Global   
   Security and publisher of the online publication Energy Security, wrote this   
   commentary for the Los Angeles Times, a Tribune Publishing newspaper.   
      
      
     lavozdecubalibre.com   
      
      
      
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