From: nicholasiii@gmail.com   
      
   On Tuesday, May 12, 2015 at 4:11:35 AM UTC-4, The Other Guy wrote:   
   > On Tue, 12 May 2015 07:36:49 +0000 (UTC), soupdragon    
   > wrote:   
   >    
   > > The link he gave you refers to the popular vote and rebutts your claim    
   > >that "you only got 44-45% of that vote" pointing out it was almost 51%.    
   >    
   > The SNP currently holds 64 of 129 seats in the Scottish Parliament.   
   >    
   > In the latest election for the Scottish Parliament,   
   > the SNP got just over 45% of the vote.   
   > Labour got just short of 32%,    
   > Conservatives got a tad less than 14%,   
   > Liberal Democrats got less than 8%.    
   >    
   > No one else came close to breaking 1%.   
   >    
   > The next election will be in a year.     
   >    
   > Want to bet on THAT one's results??   
      
   I never bet money on anything.   
      
   With this quite a bit will depend on what precisely the Tory devolution   
   proposals look like, how the other parties react, etc.   
      
   My best guess is the majority of Scots want Devomax rather then independence,   
   because most of them just voted against independence. If true the current vote   
   fort the SNP is a few points higher then it will be if the Tories do the   
   Devomax Scotland's    
   majority actually wants. Which would knock the SNP base vote down to 40-45ish,   
   and at that point the actual results would depend largely on how the other   
   parties do. For example if the LibDem collapse continues and the Tories only   
   make a weak play for    
   Scotland Labor could maneuver itself into that 40-45% range and we'd have a   
   very close election.   
      
   It'll be much clearer in six months when when know more about a) the Tory   
   proposals, b) whether Cameron is likely able to force them through or some   
   die-hard Unionists in his caucus will kamikazee it out of misguided principle,   
   and/or c) whether it's    
   enough for most Scots. Then we'll still have to wait a few months to see how   
   the non-SNP vote is likely to break. If Labour and the LibDems end up   
   splitting it the SNP could lose a lot of votes from the 45ish it got last time   
   and still have a majority,    
   if somebody collapses then the SNP could be a minority government even   
   maintaining that 45ish percent.   
      
   Incidentally, do you have any fucking clue why Soupdragon is arguing with you?   
      
   Nick   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
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