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|    Message 55,994 of 57,854    |
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|    Re: 97 percent, was "Position of science    |
|    26 Sep 18 18:06:05    |
      >>>>Consensus rules in science. THe lawof gravity as you suggest is in fact       >>>>now known to be a local factor only; as einstein showed and observation       >>>>confirms.       >>>       >>>And the consensus changed. The original consensus was wrong.       >>>>       >>>>       >>>>The old model of gravity and its consensus gave way to the new       >>>>understanding of its limited application       >>>> and a new consensus in the new model.       >>>       >>>And yet you argue in favour of the infalibility of science by       >>>concensus.       >>Quite the contrary, the history of science is that the current concensus is       >>contingent upon absence of new data or more powerful ways to analyze       >>the data.       >>       >>Newton's "law" of gravity prsisted as long as new data tc was absent.       >>Einstein provided the more powerful way to analyze observations ala gravity       >>and newton's "law" took its proper place as a local obsrvational condition       >>only.       >>Using your term, the scientific "vote" changed as above because the new       >>model fit the observations better in a more powerful inclusive manner and       >>universal manner..       >       >But the concensus did not define the 'right' way to think about       >gravity. It merely was that it became the accepted way to think about       >gravity _after_ Newton arrived at his theory. That concensus did not       >exist at the time Newton did his work. If as you say there is a       >concensus now about the working of the earth's climate there is       >nothing more certain than that it will be demolished.       >>       >>>>       >>>>The vast majority of climate scientists agree that human activity is       >>>>involved in the current climate change toward higher temperatures and       >>>>related effects that come thereof.       >>>       >>>Quite true. But their opinions are by no mean all the ame. Nor do they       >>>all support the same concerns arising. The attempt to claim that 97%       >>>are singing the same song in plain chant is conspicuously wrong (at       >>>least it can be seen to be wrong if you study climate matters).       >>>>       >>>>Just as with gravity and how it is now considered differently then did       >>>>newton, the body of evidence caused the formation of the new model to       >>>>account for the current climate changes.       >>>       >>>And yet you argue in favour of the infalibility of science by       >>concensus.       >>>       >       >>As above.       >       >Ditto.       >       >>>>Those who deny are in a shrinkig minority and do so based on questions only       >>>>without the evidence to support it.       >>>>       >>>>If andwhen those who deny can come up with the evidence to move the       >>>>consensus in another direction, the current consensus based on current       >>>>gathered evidence will persist. That is the standard process in science.       >>>       >>>That's what is happening now. Many are coming up come up with the       >>>evidence to move the consensus in another direction, but the       >>>established consensus based on the analysis of the IPCC continues to       >>>persist. I expect it will change.       >       >>Shrug, then the now overwhelming majority consensus should start to swing       >>if those who deny can come up with better evidence. A question or doubt or       >>a desired alternative outcome is not evidence.       >       >A question of doubt or the relevance of new evidence certainly is       >evidence. And there is plenty of that. Did you watch the Willy Soon       >video?              Sorry, that is not evidence.>              >>Again I urge you to read this little book;       >       >>'The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, Thomas S. Kuhn'       >>>>       >I read it years ago: but it is not science it is metascience and of no       >direct relevance to climate change.              Smile, it describes the process of science, one consensus giving way to a       new one based on new evidence or a better way to understand it.              Nay, it is 1000 percent relevant to understand the now new consensus and       the failure of the deniers to find any traction.              --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05        * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)    |
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