Paper published in - the journal Scientific Reports.   
   As appeared in 'Science Daily', which follows and announces publication of   
   scientific papers.   
      
   Summary:   
   Researchers report that sea-level rise since the industrial revolution has   
   been fast by natural standards and -- at current rates --   
   may reach 80 centimeters above the modern level by 2100 and 2.5 meters by   
   2200. The team used geological evidence of the past few   
   million years to derive a background pattern of natural sea-level rise.   
   This was compared with historical tide-gauge and satellite   
   observations of sea-level change for the 'global warming' period, since the   
   industrial revolution.   
      
   Lead author Professor Eelco Rohling, from the Australian National   
   University and formerly of the University of Southampton, says: "Our   
      natural background pattern from geological evidence should not be   
   confused with a model-based prediction. It instead uses data to illustrate   
      how fast sea level might change if only normal, natural processes were   
   at work. There is no speculation about any new mechanisms that might   
      develop due to human-made global warming. Put simply, we consider purely   
   what nature has done before, and therefore could do again."   
      
      Co-author Dr Gavin Foster, a Reader in Ocean and Earth Science at the   
   University of Southampton, who is based at the National Oceanography   
      Centre, Southampton (NOCS), explains: "Geological data showed that sea   
   level would likely rise by nine metres or more as the climate system   
      adjusts to today's greenhouse effect. But the timescale for this was   
   unclear. So we studied past rates and timescales of sea-level rise, and   
      used these to determine the natural background pattern."   
      
      Co-author Dr Ivan Haigh, lecturer in coastal oceanography at the   
   University of Southampton and also based at NOCS, adds: "Historical   
      observations show a rising sea level from about 1800 as sea water warmed   
   up and melt water from glaciers and ice fields flowed into the   
      oceans. Around 2000, sea level was rising by about three mm per year.   
   That may sound slow, but it produces a significant change over time."   
      
   The natural background pattern allowed the team to see whether recent   
   sea-level changes are exceptional or within the normal range, and   
      whether they are faster, equal, or slower than natural changes.   
      
   Professor Rohling concludes: "For the first time, we can see that the   
   modern sea-level rise is quite fast by natural standards. Based on our   
      natural background pattern, only about half the observed sea-level rise   
   would be expected.   
      
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