From: julianlzb87@gmail.com   
      
   To understand the development of technology, you may be better off   
   studying evolutionary biology rather than, say, computer science. A   
   grasp of evolutionary theory, with the facility for reasoning backwards   
   which it brings, is a better model for understanding the haphazard   
   nature of progress than any attempt to explain the world by assuming   
   conscious and deliberate intent.   
      
   One useful concept from evolutionary thinking is the idea of the   
   ‘adjacent possible’. As the science writer Olivia Judson explains:   
   ‘Evolution by natural selection only works if each mutational step   
   itself is advantageous. There’s no such thing as advantageous in a   
   general sense. It’s advantageous in the circumstances you’re living in.’   
   In the field of product design, there is an analogous idea known as   
   ‘Maya’, a phrase coined by Raymond Loewy, which stands for ‘Most   
   advanced yet acceptable’. Any successful product should be notice-ably   
   better than those which precede it, but not so different as to be   
   alarming, incomprehensible or unbelievable. The plug-in hybrid electric   
   car might be a good example of a Maya product, in that it introduces the   
   benefits of electric propulsion without the fear fully electric vehicles   
   often induce.   
      
   What is fascinating about this process is how uncertain it has become.   
   Apple, one of the world’s wealthiest companies, has spent billions   
   developing the Vision Pro, a clever set of goggles which has the   
   potential to change computing, but which also has the potential to sell   
   in tiny numbers and end up in a cupboard after a few months of novelty.   
   No one yet knows.   
      
   Many government programmes fail because they don’t understand Maya or   
   the adjacent possible. For instance, government grants are available for   
   installing heat pumps, but only if you make a dramatic and expensive   
   one-off transition: you must rip out your gas boiler, which has given   
   you dependable service for 20 years, and trust your home heating to   
   something entirely new. Evolution doesn’t make gambles like that – and   
   neither do people.   
      
   There are also intertwined dependencies in evolutionary progress. One   
   adaptation must establish itself before another can take root. Sometimes   
   two things combine to great effect. The invention of the Penny Post in   
   the UK was obviously dependent on the growth of the railways – but to   
   some extent the development of the railways also required the   
   introduction of the Penny Post. That’s because you can’t just travel   
   across the country and turn up at someone’s door announcing you are   
   staying for a week: you need an inexpensive form of communication to   
   make arrangements first.   
      
   Hence some good ideas fail at the first attempt but succeed later. I   
   always thought Google Glass was a fundamentally good idea: at the time   
   it was advanced but not yet acceptable. Interestingly, with recent   
   advances in artificial intelligence, Google has just announced it plans   
   to relaunch a spectacle–style device.   
      
   But the really peculiar characteristic common to both processes is how   
   uneven the pace of progress seems to be. Some things change repeatedly   
   and rapidly, other things seem stuck. Email has scarcely improved in 15   
   years. Our practice of constructing houses would be recognisable to a   
   Roman builder. At the same time, we are often blind to the genius of   
   things that have been around for ages. I have a theory that if Harris   
   Tweed had been invented by scientists in California last year we would   
   hail it as a miracle fabric. Breathable, largely waterproof and warm,   
   you can throw dirt at it and pack it in a suitcase for six months, and   
   with a brush and a shake it’s ready to wear. Some things are   
   unimprovable. Sharks have been around for longer than there have been   
   trees. J.K. Starley developed the Rover Safety Bicycle in 1885. Every   
   bicycle since has followed the same design.   
      
      
   Rory Sutherland   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)