From: rokimoto557@gmail.com   
      
   On 2/7/2026 1:47 AM, MarkE wrote:   
   > On 7/02/2026 4:34 pm, MarkE wrote:   
   >> The following seems to be a significant challenge for the naturalistic   
   >> origin of life. Thoughts?   
   >>   
   >> PROCESS   
   >>   
   >> OoL assumes a progression from simple inorganic chemicals to a   
   >> population of protocells and then on to the first population of free-   
   >> living cells (pre-LUCA).   
   >>   
   >> Protocells provide encapsulation, replication and heritable variation,   
   >> but are not "alive" in that they require feedstock supplies from the   
   >> environment. The feedstock dependence tapers from protocells to pre-LUCA.   
   >>   
   >> ENVIRONMENT   
   >>   
   >> This process of chemical evolution and then Darwinian evolution   
   >> requires the environment to supply nucleotides, lipids, sugars, amino   
   >> acids, polyphosphates, metal ions, etc, in certain concentrations,   
   >> with substantial homochirality, etc.   
   >>   
   >> The environment must also provide sufficient temperature stability,   
   >> pH, mechanical agitation, structure (e.g. niche separation), wet/dry   
   >> cycling, feedstock recycling, waste removal, etc.   
   >>   
   >> LINEAGE   
   >>   
   >> OoL assumes countless locations working in parallel as described,   
   >> possibly with localised cross-pollination. However, there must be an   
   >> unbroken lineage (or lineages) to from start to finish. Which implies   
   >> the persistence and stability of the environmental requirements   
   >> described.   
   >>   
   >> TIME   
   >>   
   >> How long would this lineage need? One million years? One thousand   
   >> years? 100 million years?   
   >>   
   >> PROBLEM   
   >>   
   >> What geological situation on the early Earth could provide the   
   >> continuous, stable environment required for the duration needed? Even   
   >> as little as one thousand years is long for a suitable system of   
   >> geothermal ponds that is *uninterrupted* by any sterilisation/reset   
   >> events.   
   >>   
   >> Polymers such as RNA break down over hours to decades depending on   
   >> environment. Freezing or drying may extend lifetimes but also pause   
   >> evolution. In any case, when active, continuous replication is   
   >> required for renewal before decomposition.   
   >>   
   >> 1,000 years from chemicals to cells seems impossibly short. And   
   >> 100,000 years for the nursery required seems impossibly long.   
   >>   
   >   
   > The discussion above is largely model-agnostic, however an RNA world   
   > timeline (for example) is given perspective by Totani [1]:   
   >   
   > "A polymer longer than 40–100 nucleotides is necessary to expect a self-   
   > replicating activity, but the formation of such a long polymer having a   
   > correct nucleotide sequence by random reactions seems statistically   
   > unlikely."   
      
   This is GIGO.  The RNA world was probably not the first self   
   replicators.  My take is that the first self replicators evolved to use   
   nucleotides as energy transfer molecules to help them replicate, and it   
   would have been these self replicators that evolved to make RNA   
   polymers, likely, to keep nucleotides from diffusing out of the cells   
   and keep the concentration of nucleotides at a higher concentration in   
   the cell.  Some RNA polymers had self replicating ability, and others   
   evolved to have other functions.   
      
   Ron Okimoto   
      
   >   
   > Here, "statistically unlikely" means a negligibly small probability on   
   > Earth, and tiny even in the observable universe of approximately 10^22   
   > stars. Notably, this calculation is "random reactions" - it may be   
   > argued that the processes described improve these odds, but the   
   > conclusion is the assembly of a substantial informational polymer of   
   > 40-100 units will require a very large number of trials, and therefore a   
   > long time with an unbroken supply of nucleotides.   
   >   
   >   
   > [1] Emergence of life in an inflationary universe   
   > https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-020-58060-0   
   >   
      
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