https://livinginamadhouse.wordpress.com/2016/03/03/article-50-is   
   a-poisoned-chalice-dont-drink-from-it   
      
   Article 50 is a poisoned chalice - Don't drink from it   
      
   Robert Henderson   
      
   Those who think that British Europhile politicians   will  play fair if   
   Britain votes to leave the EU in June will be horribly disappointed. The   
   public may think that if the British people have voted to leave the EU and   
   that is an end of it regardless of    
   the wishes of the Government.   Sadly, there is every reason to expect that   
   Brexit will be anything but a clean break from the EU.   
      
   To begin with there has been no commitment by Cameron to stand down as PM if   
   the vote goes against him.  Quite the opposite for he  has publicly stated   
   several  times that  he will stay on and many  Tory MPs, including some of   
   those in favour of leaving    
   like Chris Grayling ,  have said that he must remain in No 10 whatever the   
   outcome of the referendum .   
      
   If Cameron stay on as PM after a vote to leave Britain would be in the absurd   
   position of having a man in charge of  Britain's withdrawal who has shown his   
   all too eager  commitment to the EU by the feebleness of   the demands he made   
   during  his "   
   renegotiation" and his regularly repeated statement before the conclusion of   
   the "renegotiation"  that he was sure he would get new terms which would allow   
   him to campaign for Britain to remain within the EU.      
      
   A post-referendum   Cameron  government entrusted with negotiating Britain's   
   departure from the EU would mean that not only the  PM  but  the majority of   
   his  cabinet and ministers below  cabinet  level  will  be  drawn from the   
   same pro-EU personnel as    
   he has today.  In those circumstances Cameron and his fellow Europhiles would   
   almost certainly try to stitch Britain back into the EU with a deal such as   
   that granted to  Norway and Switzerland. If that happened Britain could end up   
   with the most    
   important issue in the British  public's mind -  free movement  of not only   
   labour but free movement of anyone with the right to permanent residence in   
   the EU - untouched .   
      
   But if Cameron leaves  of his own accord soon after a vote to leave Britain   
   could still end up with a Europhile  Prime Minister and Cabinet.  Why? By  far   
   the most likely person to succeed him  is Boris Johnson. If he  does become    
   PM there is every    
   reason to believe that he will also do his level best to enmesh Britain back   
   into  the EU.  Ever since Johnson  became the Telegraph's  Brussels   
   correspondent in the 1990s he has been deriding the EU, but until coming out   
   as a supporter of voting to    
   leave in the past week he has never advocated Britain's withdrawal.  Johnson   
   also gave a very strong hint  in the  Daily Telegraph article in which he   
   announced his support for leaving the EU that his support for Britain leaving   
   the EU was no more than     
   a ploy to persuade the EU to offer  more significant concessions than those   
   offered to Cameron. Johnson has also been a regular advocate of the value of   
   immigration.   
      
   The scenario of Cameron or Johnson deliberately subverting the intention of a   
   referendum vote  to leave are all too plausible. There has been no public   
   discussion let alone  agreement by leading  politicians over what the British   
   government may or may    
   not negotiate in the event of a vote to leave.   Nor has there been any   
   suggestion by any British politician or party  that whatever the terms offered   
   by the EU the British public will have the right to vote on them in a   
   referendum.  Britain could be    
   left  with  an agreement decided by the British Government and the EU which   
   might do nothing of what  the British public most wants and  has voted for,   
   namely, the return of sovereignty and  the control of Britain's borders.   
      
   Then  there is Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty.  Both Cameron and Johnson are   
   committed to doing so within the terms of the Lisbon Treaty of  2009.  Far   
   from a vote to leave in the referendum putting Britain in the position of a    
   sovereign nation    
   engaging in a negotiation for a treaty with the EU  it traps  Britain into an   
   extended period of negotiation whose outcome is dependent on the agreement or   
   non-agreement of  the 27 other EU member states and the  EU Parliament.  Let   
   me quote  the Article    
   in  full:   
      
   Article 50   
      
   Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its   
   own constitutional requirements.   
   A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of   
   its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European   
   Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State,   
   setting out the    
   arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its   
   future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in   
   accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the   
   European Union. It shall be    
   concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified   
   majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.   
   The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of   
   entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after   
   the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in   
   agreement with the    
   Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.   
   For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or   
   of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate   
   in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions   
   concerning it.   
   A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of   
   the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.   
      
   If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request   
   shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49. (   
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
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    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)