XPost: sci.geo.petroleum, alt.energy.automobile, sci.energy   
   XPost: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh, sac.politics   
   From: leroysoetoro@americans-first.com   
      
   https://hotair.com/tree-hugging-sister/2026/02/02/cuba-starting-to-get-   
   those-venezuela-vibes-n3811471   
      
   It's kind of interesting what's happening on that island just south of Key   
   West.   
      
   John had a post on it this afternoon - great minds, right? He had picked   
   up on the fact that the Cubans have started talking to the Trump   
   administration. They've gotten all sorts of chitty-chatty all of a sudden.   
      
   What's forcing their hand is the oil situation. John quotes in-the-know   
   types who say the regime is down to 15 or 20 days' worth of oil, tops.   
      
   As I said back at the beginning of January, snatching up Maduro put a   
   serious crimp in Cuba's ability to operate in any capacity at all. It   
   effectively cut the impoverished island's energy jugular and left it   
   bleeding out.   
      
   ...The importance of the Venezuelan pipeline to the Cuban communist regime   
   cannot be underestimated. Cuba didn't buy oil from Venezuela - it was   
   given to them.   
      
   1. The End of the "Free Oil" Lifeline   
      
   For over two decades, the single most important pillar of the Cuban   
   economy has been the "Barrio Adentro" agreement, which saw Venezuela ship   
   roughly 50,000 barrels of oil per day to Havana essentially for free. With   
   the US military now securing Venezuelan ports and oil fields following   
   yesterday's operation, these shipments have hit zero overnight. Cuba,   
   which is already cash-strapped, simply does not have the foreign currency   
   reserves to buy this amount of oil on the open market at global prices,   
   meaning the island's energy supply has effectively been cut in half   
   instantly.   
      
   2. The Loss of the "Resale" Revenue Stream   
      
   Few people realise that the Castro regime didn't just use Venezuelan oil   
   to keep the lights on; they used it as a major source of income by selling   
   the surplus. Venezuela often sent more refined fuel than the island   
   needed, allowing Havana to sell the excess on the international market to   
   generate hard currency. The fall of Maduro wipes out this "middleman"   
   profit entirely, removing one of the few remaining sources of US dollars   
   the government used to import food and medicine, which will accelerate the   
   humanitarian crisis to breaking point.   
      
   It might be inconvenient for Cuba's regime leaders, but it was absolutely   
   devastating for its residents.   
      
      
   And the loss of Venezuelan oil was only the beginning of the encirclement.   
      
   The next Hammer of Trump to fall was on Mexico and President Claudia   
   Scheinbaum's monthly shipments of oil to the island.   
      
      
   Did you know that Mexico has been sending Cuba ~US$89 million worth of oil   
   every month? ?????   
      
   Until Trump put a stop to it ????   
      
   While here we’re short on medicines and security. Who is the cherry-   
   colored regime of @Claudiashein actually serving?   
      
   PEMEX canceled all the shipments. Scheinbaum will be sending food and   
   medical supplies instead.   
      
   As the United States appears to actively seek regime change in Cuba,   
   Mexico’s state oil company Pemex canceled plans to send a shipment of   
   crude oil to the communist-run island this month, Bloomberg reported on   
   Monday.   
      
   On Tuesday morning, President Claudia Sheinbaum stressed that Mexico makes   
   its own “sovereign” decisions regarding oil shipments to Cuba, but didn’t   
   deny that Pemex halted a planned shipment to the island.   
      
   Citing “documents” to which it had access, Bloomberg reported that Pemex   
   was expected to send a shipment of oil to Cuba in January but “removed the   
   cargo from its schedule.”   
      
   “… The shipment was set to load in mid-January and would have arrived in   
   Cuba before the end of the month under the original schedule,” the news   
   agency wrote.   
      
   “… The canceled shipment was expected to load … on board the vessel Swift   
   Galaxy, according to the document. It was removed from the schedule   
   without an explanation.”   
      
   And just a couple of days ago, Trump finished tightening the energy   
   deprivation noose. The president signed an executive order that declared a   
   national state of emergency and authorized both the Secretaries of State   
   and Commerce to impose hefty tariffs on any nation caught exporting oil to   
   the regime on the island.   
      
      
   ...Under the order, the Secretary of State, along with the Secretary of   
   Commerce, are directed to impose an additional “ad valoremrate of duty” on   
   goods imported into the United States that are products by any other   
   country that directly or indirectly sells or otherwise provides any oil to   
   Cuba.   
      
   OUCH   
      
   There are signs that while Cuban mouths might be talking, regime leaders   
   might well be putting on running shoes for getting the hell out of Dodge.   
      
   A mysterious sanctioned Russian jet, in echoes of flights into Caracas   
   prior to the Maduro raid, has landed in Cuba after a very interesting   
   global circumnavigation.   
      
   A Russian cargo plane typically used to transfer military equipment landed   
   at a military airfield in Havana Sunday night, echoing flight patterns   
   seen ahead of the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela.   
      
   The U.S.-sanctioned Ilyushin Il-76, operated by Russian state-linked   
   airline Aviacon Zitotrans, was tracked landing at San Antonio de los Baños   
   Airfield, a Cuban military installation roughly 30 miles south of Havana,   
   according to public flight data.   
      
   Flight-tracking records show the aircraft stopped in St. Petersburg and   
   Sochi in Russia; Mauritania, Africa; and the Dominican Republic. Each   
   landing would have required approval from host governments, offering a   
   window into which countries are continuing to permit Russian military-   
   linked aviation activity despite Western sanctions.   
      
   The same aircraft conducted flights to Venezuela, Nicaragua and Cuba in   
   late October 2025, as tensions between Washington and Caracas escalated.   
   That movement preceded U.S. military action in Venezuela that ultimately   
   ended Maduro’s rule — a sequence U.S. officials and analysts have since   
   pointed to as a warning indicator when evaluating similar Russian aviation   
   activity in the region.   
      
   Who and what are they taking out?   
      
   Or bringing in?   
      
   Whatever it is, the pace is described as 'frantic.'   
      
   ...It is unclear what cargo the aircraft is carrying on its current   
   journey. When the same aircraft flew to Venezuela in advance of the U.S.   
   strikes, it delivered Pantsir-S1 short-range and Buk-M2E medium-range air   
   defense systems to Caracas, according to Russian lawmaker Alexei Zhuravlev   
   and Russian state-owned media. Dimensions and weight of both systems make   
   this plausible, although the Buk would likely have to be disassembled due   
   to its height.   
      
   The Il-76’s current mission has striking similarities to its earlier   
   flight to Venezuela, including several stops along the way in northern   
   Africa and the backdrop of rapidly rising geopolitical tensions   
   surrounding a Russian-aligned country in Latin America.   
      
   In Venezuela, Russian-made air defenses failed to protect against the U.S.   
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
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