XPost: alt.fan.rush-limbaugh, alt.politics.republicans   
   From: yourdime@outlook.com   
      
   I had breakfast this morning with Rachel as she was on her way to the   
   Capitol for session, and she commented that the political life is always   
   “go, go, go.” I told her the only way out of that was to get into bird   
   watching or some other topic requiring less diligence and attention.   
   Similarly, if you want to be less stressed out about the ins and outs of   
   politics, you need to dedicate your focus to the long-term picture   
   rather than the short-term one. The short-term outlook on politics leads   
   to doom-and-gloom when you have setbacks like:   
      
   November 2025 elections   
   Miami Mayor   
   Random special elections you didn’t know about being lost   
   I have tried and tried and tried to inject reality into the unbridled   
   optimism of those expecting Republicans to wipe the floor with Democrats   
   this year, even when 20 of 23 midterms since 1934 have seen the   
   President’s party lose seats. They either mistake my realistic outlook   
   for negativity or go right back to the drawing board wanting to pump   
   money and manpower into seats the Democrats will win by 25 points when   
   they could drive change more effectively by focusing on 39 House seats,   
   5 Senate seats, and 4 gubernatorial races that are going to determine   
   the balance of power in 9 months.   
      
   There is no sense in competing for 435 House seats when so many are   
   safe, and still so many others are unwinnable; when your team is down by   
   5 and has time for one more play from the 50, we are running a Hail   
   Mary. By my estimation, there are 506 Senate, House, and gubernatorial   
   races up this year. 47 of them, or 7.1%, are what I consider truly   
   pivotal to majorities and control of states’ top offices. My assessments   
   cut to the chase and are designed to bring about the shortest and most   
   viable pathway to our goals of holding the Republican majorities in   
   Congress and winning key gubernatorial races.   
      
   If you’ve read this newsletter for any reasonable amount of time, you   
   probably know that Democrats are getting trounced everywhere in voter   
   registration since the 2024 election, save for Utah (voter roll cuts)   
   and New York (NYC Primary last year). I am on high alert over a recent   
   reversal of fortunes in Pennsylvania, which I will discuss at length if   
   it continues, but for now, the Democrat outlook is bleak for the long   
   run. Every time I promote these long-term trends, someone out there   
   always goes:   
      
   If Republicans are gaining so much registration, why did they lose a   
   seat Trump won by 20 in a special election?   
      
   Fair question. Voter registration by party analysis is dead-on accurate   
   for presidential elections (and the disruption of those trends is one   
   major reason I could tell the 2020 election was a fraud), but doesn’t   
   always manifest in off-year, midterm, and special elections. You can   
   read why in this piece:   
      
   Fewer people turn out… supporters of the President’s party are passive   
   and generally less angry about politics than they were when the other   
   party was in power, and therefore less likely to turn out in great   
   numbers. In summary: the base of the party out of power is more pissed   
   off, votes in larger numbers, and rides turnout dynamics and command of   
   issues to victory in elections in which there is not full turnout.   
   Off-year and special elections… are like trap games in football… Even   
   Ronald Reagan… got smoked in both of his midterms.   
      
   Today’s article is going to examine three states – Florida, North   
   Carolina, and Pennsylvania – which have all three had solid Republican   
   registration gains going on since the 2010 election cycle without   
   disruption. Florida’s dramatic shift has made it wholly uncompetitive in   
   all statewide elections, while North Carolina may be headed that way as   
   well (at least presidentially) if only their state could quit taking   
   Democrats seriously at state level. Pennsylvania remains the ultimate   
   battleground and is arguably now what Ohio was for decades as a national   
   bellwether.   
      
   2010 Midterm Cycle   
      
   A national red wave environment featuring the emergence of the Tea Party   
   and a tremendous repudiation of Barack Obama. Republicans took back the   
   U.S. House, made major gains in the U.S. Senate, and picked off   
   countless offices nationwide.   
      
   Florida   
      
   https://floppingaces.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/white-border-export-2   
   026-02-19T15-03-50-httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz-2-1536x935.jpg   
      
   If you really want to ponder just how far we’ve come, remind yourself   
   that Florida twice gave its electoral votes to Barack Obama. The   
   registration shift toward Republicans began in the runup to the 2010   
   midterms, and the state had already moved 123,650 registrations to the   
   right two years after Obama had won it for the first time. Rick Scott   
   won the governorship (+1.2%), Republicans flipped four U.S. House seats,   
   and Marco Rubio won an open Senate seat in a three-man race.   
      
   Party registration tracked with results in 2010 in a red wave. In 2012,   
   in line with party registration shifts, Obama held on by less than a   
   point against Mitt Romney before Trump would flip Florida for good four   
   years later.   
      
   North Carolina   
      
   https://floppingaces.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/white-border-export-2   
   026-02-19T15-04-15-httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz-3-768x429.jpg   
      
   North Carolina qualifies as Obama’s second-biggest upset of 2008, just   
   behind Indiana. It has always had an artificially high Democrat   
   registration advantage that has only disappeared as recently as last   
   month for the first time in history, but the erosion took 17 years from   
   Obama’s high point. By 2010, the state had moved 53,432 to the right,   
   signaling a flip of one U.S. House seat, a hold of Richard Burr’s Senate   
   seat (+11.8%), and Republicans taking over both chambers of the state   
   legislature. The gubernatorial race in North Carolina runs concurrent   
   with presidential elections.   
      
   Pennsylvania   
      
   https://floppingaces.net/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/white-border-export-2   
   026-02-19T15-04-49-httpssubstack-post-media.s3.amaz-4-768x445.jpg   
      
   2008 also represented a modern Democrat high point, with Obama carrying   
   the state in the largest landslide since 1964’s Johnson blowout, sitting   
   on a registration advantage in excess of 1.2 million. With no blue   
   collar standard bearer present, the Democrat advantage eroded gradually.   
   The GOP gain had been just 57,303 by the 2010 midterms, but Republicans   
   flipped the governorship and five U.S. House Seats, and held an open   
   Senate seat with Pat Toomey as nominee. They also flipped the state   
   House of Representatives.   
      
   In all three sample states, party registration tracked with Republican   
   gains.   
      
   2018 Midterm Cycle   
      
   Read more   
      
   https://floppingaces.net/most-wanted/the-voter-registration-collapse-of-t   
      
   [continued in next message]   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)