From: januarybaybee@gmail.com   
      
   CNN Updated 10:43 AM ET, Sun September 13, 2020   
      
      
   Why Biden's national lead matters   
      
   Biden 51% to 42% for Trump   
      
      
   (CNN)  Poll of the week: A new Monmouth University poll finds that former Vice   
   President Joe Biden holds a 51% to 44% lead over President Donald Trump among   
   likely voters.     
      
   Among registered voters, it's Biden 51% to 42% for Trump.   
      
   The average of the two, an 8-point Biden advantage, is in-line with the   
   national polling average.   
      
   What's the point: Let's state it up front: winning the popular vote means   
   nothing in and of itself. You only become president if you win the Electoral   
   College.   
   That said, the national polling matters a lot.  We have a ton of it, unlike in   
   a number of swing states.   It's more accurate than the state polling on   
   average. Most importantly, we have a fairly good idea of what Biden's margin   
   needs to be nationally in    
   order to win in the Electoral College.   
      
   Last week, I outlined how Biden's margin in the pivotal Electoral College   
   states was narrower than in the popular vote.  That's still true today and   
   will almost certainly be true through the election.   
      
   There is a limit, however, to the extent to which Biden can win in the popular   
   vote without also taking an Electoral College majority.  The nation, after   
   all, is made up of the states that also make up the Electoral College.  If the   
   margins move in the    
   swing states, then they're very likely to move nationally as well.   
      
   If Biden wins by more than 5 points nationally, he's almost certainly going to   
   win enough electoral votes to get to at least 270 and take the Electoral   
   College.   
      
   There's simply little record of a difference between the margin in the key   
   swing states and the national vote being greater than 5 points.   
      
   If Biden wins by somewhere between 3 and 5 points nationally, he'll be the   
   clear favorite in the Electoral College, even if there is some non-negligible   
   chance Trump could emerge victorious.   
      
   Biden's national advantage right now is clearly outside this 5-point window.   
      
   There would need to be a polling miss for Trump to have a realistic shot in   
   the Electoral College.  A 2- or 3-point miss in the national polls would be   
   far from unheard of, but it's not as likely as you might think, at least in   
   comparison to state    
   polling.   
      
   [snip]   
      
   The point is that a national polling miss isn't as likely as a miss in key   
   swing states.  If Biden is up by the same margin nationally on Election Day as   
   he is now, he'll be a heavy favorite to win not just nationally, but in the   
   Electoral College as    
   well.   
      
   more:     
   https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/13/politics/biden-national-lead-analysis/index.html   
      
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