XPost: alt.politics.elections, alt.fan.rush-limbaugh, talk.politics.guns   
   XPost: talk.politics.misc, alt.society.liberalism   
   From: nospam@ix.netcom.com   
      
   The Kamala Harris basement campaign seemed to be working for a while. Lots   
   of Democrats were understandably excited to be getting rid of aging Joe   
   Biden as their standard-bearer. And a carefully choreographed rollout of   
   Harris, then Walz gave them weeks of positive news to build on. But about   
   3-4 weeks ago the air started going out of the balloon.   
      
   The national media started noticing that Harris had decided to sidestep   
   them in favor of radio interviews (where she could read from her notes) or   
   local swing-state interviews which were unlikely to make national news if   
   she got herself in trouble. The Harris campaign was clearly trying to run   
   out the clock but you almost feel that it wasn't working. They were   
   risking letting Trump climb back into the race.   
      
   Jump forward to today and with just two weeks left to go, most polls show   
   things have been drifting toward Trump nationally. The race now appears to   
   be a tie in every battleground state.   
      
   Most of the major national polls have showed a shift toward Mr. Trump   
   since their prior surveys:   
      
   Mr. Trump led by two points nationwide in a Fox News poll; Ms. Harris led   
   by two points in its prior poll.   
      
   Fairleigh Dickinson University found Ms. Harris ahead by three nationwide,   
   while she led by seven in its prior poll.   
      
   Marquette Law School found a tied race, compared with a six-point lead for   
   Ms. Harris in August.   
      
   Ipsos fielded several polls showing Ms. Harris up between two and four   
   points over the last week, compared with leads of mostly five or six   
   points in September.   
      
   Emerson College found a tied race, compared with a two-point lead for Ms.   
   Harris in its prior poll.   
      
   Again, what matters here is not what any individual poll says but the   
   agreement of all the polls (except for Marist which showed Harris up 5)   
   that the race is moving toward Trump. It looks like Harris' run-out-the-   
   clock strategy didn't work.   
      
   With polls now showing a tie the obvious question becomes, how reliable   
   with the polling be this year?  It has underestimated Trump's support   
   before. Is it doing so again this year? Unfortunately the answer to that   
   question is that no one really knows.   
      
   Will the polls be wrong again this cycle?   
      
   It’s the question I probably get most, for obvious reasons. Unfortunately,   
   it’s not an easy one to answer, and one reason might surprise you:   
   Pollsters still don’t know exactly why the polls underestimated Donald J.   
   Trump four years ago.   
      
   As a post-election report by professional pollsters put it: “Identifying   
   conclusively why polls overstated the Democratic-Republican margin   
   relative to the certified vote appears to be impossible with the available   
   data.”   
      
   The exact explanation matters. Under some theories, polls may be much   
   better in 2024; under others, pollsters are still vulnerable to another   
   misfire.   
      
   So the polls could be right this time out and we could be looking at the   
   tightest of tie races. Or, the polls could be underestimating Trump's   
   support again and Trump might actually be ahead by 3-4 points in every   
   battleground state, which would make for a very sad election night for   
   Democrats.   
      
   I can only guess as the outcome but at this moment it does feel as if this   
   is slipping away from the Dems and maybe they know it too. But of course   
   there are still 2 weeks to go and cornered animals are dangerous, as the   
   saying goes. There's no telling what October surprise Democrats have been   
   holding onto just in case things look desperate.   
      
   https://hotair.com/john-s-2/2024/10/22/with-two-weeks-to-go-kamalas-edge-   
   has-evaporated-n3796127   
      
   --- SoupGate-Win32 v1.05   
    * Origin: you cannot sedate... all the things you hate (1:229/2)