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FOUS30 KWBC 281858
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
158 PM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Fri Nov 28 2025 - 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Cook/Wegman

Day 2
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 29 2025 - 12Z Sun Nov 30 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

An uptick in convective coverage and intensity is expected Saturday
night as low level convergence increases across Southeast TX with=20
instability around 1000 j/kg. The cold front moving through will be
progressive, likely limiting the duration of this event. However=20
the 12z high res models indicate a likelihood that we see some=20
convective development ahead of the front around 00z, with frontal=20
convection then merging with this activity overnight. This=20
evolution would allow for some brief training resulting in locally=20
higher rainfall amounts. While some placement differences exist,=20
both the 12z HREF and 06z REFS show neighborhood probabilities of=20
exceeding 3" in the 30-60% range, and the HREF does show some 3hr=20
FFG exceedance. Thus a localized flash flood risk remains, mainly=20
focused across any more susceptible urban areas that see higher=20
rainfall rates.

Chenard

Day 3
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 30 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 01 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Chenard


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_g7DP9E5-JoQS_4Y-N6tDAoTbFA7oB_tmYK8Z0rES_5j=
4cvaSeaTeDxFIMDzvdDlKssZTtV0o25qB61Xn6Qko9WNee4$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_g7DP9E5-JoQS_4Y-N6tDAoTbFA7oB_tmYK8Z0rES_5j=
4cvaSeaTeDxFIMDzvdDlKssZTtV0o25qB61Xn6Qk79EOX3U$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_g7DP9E5-JoQS_4Y-N6tDAoTbFA7oB_tmYK8Z0rES_5j=
4cvaSeaTeDxFIMDzvdDlKssZTtV0o25qB61Xn6QkuOhDPnU$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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