TZUTC: 0000
MSGID: 168033.weather@1:2320/105 2db8b35c
PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
BBSID: CAPCITY2
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FORMAT: flowed
ACUS48 KWNS 280840
SWOD48
SPC AC 280838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Return flow will ensue along the western Gulf Coast mid-week,
yielding air mass modification from the prior continental intrusion.
Bulk of deterministic guidance has trended toward earlier EC-AIFS
signals of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east across
the southern states through late week. While run-to-run
predictability and spread across models remains subpar, convective
potential should increase by D6-7/Friday-Saturday across parts of
the Gulf Coast States. At this point, with only modest cyclogenesis
consistently progged, overall severe potential still appears
marginal. Latest ML guidance from SPC-CSU and NSSL for the GEFS, and
yesterday's NCAR for the ECENS, support this notion with individual
day probabilities holding at 5 percent or less.

..Grams.. 12/28/2025

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