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QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Dec 28 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR A PORTION OF=20
WESTERN NEW YORK...

...Midwest...
16Z Update...Maintaining the Marginal Risk

Rapidly developing low pressure is now into NW Illinois with a
pronounced warm front nudging into the southern Chicago metro area.
Ample moisture is south of the front where dewpoints are 60F with
instability and thunderstorms producing up to 1"/hr rates. The low
center will track into MI by 21Z today.
12Z CAMs have come in too far north with this axis, but repeating=20
thunderstorms south of Chicago across far northern Indiana and=20
southern Michigan warrants maintenance of the Marginal Risk for=20
this afternoon. The cold front then sweeps through this evening=20
with the potential for an additional half inch which may be a=20
problem should flooding develop this afternoon.


...Western/Northern New York...
16Z Update...Maintaining the Slight Risk while expanding the
Marginal Risk east to the Tug Hill Plateau.

Warm air advection ahead of a rapidly deepening low currently over
northern Illinois will continue to expand over western New York=20
this afternoon. A pronounced warm front will lift over western New=20
York early this evening which will bring 50F+ dewpoints across=20
areas west of the Finger Lakes until the cold front sweeps through=20
late tonight. These several hours of over 50F dewpoints will cause=20
considerable melt to the Chautauqua Ridge snowpack which includes=20
around 2" SWE. The good news for areas south of Buffalo is that 12Z
CAM guidance has shifted the heavy rain axis a bit farther north=20
for this evening which should result in less rainfall over the=20
melting snow than previously forecast. However, this rainfall axis
should feature 0.5"/hr rates tonight and a risk for 1.5" in three
hours. This heavy rain threat will encompass Lake Ontario which=20
warrants expansion of the Marginal Risk farther east despite the=20
fact that it'll be a cold rain and should not cause much snow melt=20
in the Tug Hill area.

The strong cold front from the intense low sweeps through western
NY late tonight. Heavy rain/thunderstorms with should accompany=20
the progressive front and bring up to an additional half inch of
rain which could potentially cause further overnight flooding=20
concerns before it all quickly freezes and lake effect snow occurs=20
Monday.


Jackson

Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025 - 12Z Tue Dec 30 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 30 2025 - 12Z Wed Dec 31 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6N2mT774qLe4hbCXwQXDo6ZAUUI1PEfJyl6FSA_aqtwR=
oFdkIGmn_3iuacoE6wrd6f3I9CYl3av7mWy6OP4Ju6-GIvE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6N2mT774qLe4hbCXwQXDo6ZAUUI1PEfJyl6FSA_aqtwR=
oFdkIGmn_3iuacoE6wrd6f3I9CYl3av7mWy6OP4JDKW1cho$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6N2mT774qLe4hbCXwQXDo6ZAUUI1PEfJyl6FSA_aqtwR=
oFdkIGmn_3iuacoE6wrd6f3I9CYl3av7mWy6OP4JqgGQUSQ$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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