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QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
145 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Day 1
Valid 16Z Sun Dec 28 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR A PORTION OF
WESTERN NEW YORK...

...Midwest...
16Z Update...Maintaining the Marginal Risk

Rapidly developing low pressure is now into NW Illinois with a
pronounced warm front nudging into the southern Chicago metro area.
Ample moisture is south of the front where dewpoints are 60F with
instability and thunderstorms producing up to 1"/hr rates. The low
center will track into MI by 21Z today.
12Z CAMs have come in too far north with this axis, but repeating
thunderstorms south of Chicago across far northern Indiana and
southern Michigan warrants maintenance of the Marginal Risk for
this afternoon. The cold front then sweeps through this evening
with the potential for an additional half inch which may be a
problem should flooding develop this afternoon.


...Western/Northern New York...
16Z Update...Maintaining the Slight Risk while expanding the
Marginal Risk east to the Tug Hill Plateau.

Warm air advection ahead of a rapidly deepening low currently over
northern Illinois will continue to expand over western New York
this afternoon. A pronounced warm front will lift over western New
York early this evening which will bring 50F+ dewpoints across
areas west of the Finger Lakes until the cold front sweeps through
late tonight. These several hours of over 50F dewpoints will cause
considerable melt to the Chautauqua Ridge snowpack which includes
around 2" SWE. The good news for areas south of Buffalo is that 12Z
CAM guidance has shifted the heavy rain axis a bit farther north
for this evening which should result in less rainfall over the
melting snow than previously forecast. However, this rainfall axis
should feature 0.5"/hr rates tonight and a risk for 1.5" in three
hours. This heavy rain threat will encompass Lake Ontario which
warrants expansion of the Marginal Risk farther east despite the
fact that it'll be a cold rain and should not cause much snow melt
in the Tug Hill area.

The strong cold front from the intense low sweeps through western
NY late tonight. Heavy rain/thunderstorms with should accompany
the progressive front and bring up to an additional half inch of
rain which could potentially cause further overnight flooding
concerns before it all quickly freezes and lake effect snow occurs
Monday.


Jackson

Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025 - 12Z Tue Dec 30 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman/Kleebauer

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 30 2025 - 12Z Wed Dec 31 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman/Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!69jm7VJCILHPi8iJHIUE-3v6QXihql5DoxLEoND0QgdY=
eKx2sW-FpsyP7GwMhEHj7fCRQMhB0VxFCRWdV9KZnESCO4k$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!69jm7VJCILHPi8iJHIUE-3v6QXihql5DoxLEoND0QgdY=
eKx2sW-FpsyP7GwMhEHj7fCRQMhB0VxFCRWdV9KZuIkhhDo$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!69jm7VJCILHPi8iJHIUE-3v6QXihql5DoxLEoND0QgdY=
eKx2sW-FpsyP7GwMhEHj7fCRQMhB0VxFCRWdV9KZZb-JjK0$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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