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FOUS30 KWBC 290017
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
717 PM EST Sun Dec 28 2025

Day 1
Valid 01Z Mon Dec 29 2025 - 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

01Z Update: Despite a strong WAA regime ahead of a bombing surface
cyclone over the central Midwest, appreciable instability is still
lacking and has subdued rates towards 0.5-0.75"/hr over the past
several hours, limiting the flash flood threat as a whole. Some
areas have seen 1-2" over 3-hr spans which was enough to cause some
minor flooding due to frozen grounds promoting run off. In any
case, the trend over the past several runs of the CAMs has backed
off on the threat for significant rains across the immediate lake
shores with the threat actually maintaining a progressive motion
through the remainder of the period. Cold frontal progression
through the Ohio Valley will advance rapidly promoting some heavier
rainfall along the front itself, but the setup will yield a low-end
potential for flash flood concerns just due to the nature of the
progressive forward motions.=20

Considering the above, the SLGT was removed with a broad MRGL
maintained from far southeastern MI through the immediate confines
around the eastern Great Lakes.=20

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025 - 12Z Tue Dec 30 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman/Kleebauer

Day 3
Valid 12Z Tue Dec 30 2025 - 12Z Wed Dec 31 2025

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Wegman/Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_HmuW7iL_PJ0oJBTkYyY9pFmFx27qgk8gOrmsYd78wZE=
Ds1SsVDGP2LnLAqYd3oiovyhY5Q1nyi3P4kZ2E1730zJUyE$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_HmuW7iL_PJ0oJBTkYyY9pFmFx27qgk8gOrmsYd78wZE=
Ds1SsVDGP2LnLAqYd3oiovyhY5Q1nyi3P4kZ2E17Xh7ZCmM$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!_HmuW7iL_PJ0oJBTkYyY9pFmFx27qgk8gOrmsYd78wZE=
Ds1SsVDGP2LnLAqYd3oiovyhY5Q1nyi3P4kZ2E172PvO48g$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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