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FOUS11 KWBC 290718
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
218 AM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

Valid 12Z Mon Dec 29 2025 - 12Z Thu Jan 01 2026

*** Major Winter Storm for the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and=20
 Northeast Transitions to Lake-Effect Snow Today ***

...Great Lakes/Northeast...
Days 1-3... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Major to locally=20
Extreme

Mature cyclone with a central pressure in the mid 970s mb this=20
morning will be near peak intensity, with direct affects lessening=20
through the day. Comma-head/TROWAL snows over Michigan will=20
transition to lake-effect snow by this afternoon as the parent low=20
continues through Ontario into Quebec. In its wake, winds will=20
still be strong, creating blowing and drifting snow even where none
may be falling. Blizzard warnings remain in effect over parts of=20
the Upper Midwest this morning and will continue over the U.P. of=20
Michigan through the day. An additional 8 inches of snow after 12Z=20
is likely (>50% probability) over at least the eastern half of the=20
U.P. With cyclonic flow around the low continuing today, the lake=20
effect machine will kick in downwind of Lake Michigan (this=20
morning) and Erie/Ontario later this afternoon/evening. An=20
additional shortwave will fly in from Canada through the Great=20
Lakes TUesday afternoon into Wednesday, adding a little more lift=20
to the region. Westerly to WNW flow into the central Appalachians=20
will also promote modest snows for eastern WV, western MD, and into
the Laurel Highlands. With the strong flow over the lakes, some=20
multi-lake connection could support long-lived streamers well=20
inland. Yet another shortwave out of Canada later Wednesday into=20
Thursday will help maintain the lake effect off Erie/Ontario=20
through the end of this forecast period.=20

Three-day total snowfall will be highest in NW PA and in the=20
Chautauqua Ridge as well as into central NY near Syracuse and into=20
the Tug Hill Plateau. Winds will sometimes be transient and=20
sometimes rather stationary, and totals may vary widely on a given=20
day. WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of snow through 12Z=20
Thursday are >50% over western Lower Michigan, northeastern OH into
southwestern NY, over the central Appalachians, and into central=20
NY to the Tug Hill. Within these regions, WPC probabilities for at=20
least 18 inches of snow are >50% over NW PA and SW NY and near=20
Syracuse toward Watertown (Oswego, Pulaski, etc.).=20

In the Northeast, the advancing warm front then cold front will=20
flush out the entrapped cold surface air which has resulted in=20
significant freezing rain accumulations so far. A little more icing
of a tenth or so is possible just after 12Z before a quick=20
changeover to rain then back to snow post-FROPA.=20

...Southeast New Mexico/Guadalupe Mountains...=20
Day 1... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Moderate

A cold front plunging southward has brought in much colder=20
temperatures to the region. ENE sfc flow behind it beneath moisture
advecting eastward from the Pacific will lead to snow over the=20
Guadalupe and southern Sacramento Mountains Monday. With 700mb WAA=20
via SWrly flow over southern NM and west TX colliding with=20
northerly 700mb winds over the High Plains, mid-level FGEN could=20
support some modest snow especially over the terrain. WPC=20
probabilities of at least 4 inches of snow are >50% in the=20
mountains, with lighter accumulations eastward to the TX border.=20

...Sierra Nevada...
Day 3...

Incoming moisture from the Pacific will reach the central and=20
southern Sierra Wednesday into Thursday morning. Snow levels are=20
quite high -- 9000 to 10,000ft -- and accumulations will be light=20
even at the highest elevations.=20


Fracasso


...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
 Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=
stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!7Ru7Q96TCj8qd5WETidu4uMWmyltI4zdSiC06mSsEglqs=
oUYNTupVvcnufQnOpwIE3y-JgX4oDDayk3ENxa4B5yT3NI$=20


$$

=3D =3D =3D
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