TZUTC: 0000
MSGID: 168072.weather@1:2320/105 2dba0c89
PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
BBSID: CAPCITY2
CHRS: ASCII 1
FORMAT: flowed
ACUS48 KWNS 290912
SWOD48
SPC AC 290911

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0311 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Guidance consensus indicates a lower-amplitude shortwave trough will
approach the southern CA coast at 12Z Thursday. This feature appears
increasingly likely to progress east across the southern states
through late week, initially inducing cyclogenesis over the southern
High Plains. This will aid in strengthening low-level moisture
return over the western Gulf, after a pervasive continental air mass
intrusion today.

Increasing convective potential is anticipated around late D5/Friday
to D6/Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and
into parts of the Deep South. Run-to-run-predictability and spread
across guidance remains less-than-ideal for timing/location of
amplification/dampening details for this shortwave trough. Bulk of
signals are still for a modest surface cyclone and seemingly
lower-end severe risk. But there's enough minority signal to warrant
concern for a potential 15 percent area in later outlook cycles.

..Grams.. 12/29/2025

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.28-Linux
 * Origin: Capitol City Online (1:2320/105)
SEEN-BY: 1/19 100 16/0 19/10 37 104/119 105/81 106/201 114/10 120/302
SEEN-BY: 123/130 128/187 129/14 142/104 153/757 7715 154/10 30 50
SEEN-BY: 154/110 700 201/0 203/0 218/700 840 220/10 20 30 90 221/1
SEEN-BY: 221/6 360 226/18 30 44 50 227/114 229/110 134 206 300 307
SEEN-BY: 229/317 400 426 428 470 664 700 705 240/5832 266/512 280/5003
SEEN-BY: 291/111 301/1 320/119 219 319 2119 322/757 762 326/101 335/364
SEEN-BY: 341/66 342/200 396/45 423/81 460/58 633/280 712/848 902/26
SEEN-BY: 2320/0 105 304 3634/12 5020/400 5075/35
PATH: 2320/105 154/10 221/6 1 320/219 229/426