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FOUS11 KWBC 302044
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
344 PM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Valid 00Z Wed Dec 31 2025 - 00Z Sat Jan 03 2026


*** New Year's Eve Snow Squall Threat From Michigan through
 Interior Northeast ***

...Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Interior Northeast...=20
Days 1-3... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Major

A deep cold core low will track north NNW from Quebec to the Hudson
Bay through Wednesday night as a series of reinforcing troughs and
impulses tracks below over the Great Lakes and Northeast. This=20
will maintains bouts of LES off all the Great Lakes, but especially
east of Lakes Erie and Ontario through Friday. The most pronounced
swings through the Upper Great Lakes Wednesday and across NY/PA=20
through Wednesday (New Year' Eve) night. 12Z CAMs are in excellent=20
agreement on this arctic front bringing a notable snow squall=20
threat across eastern Michigan Wednesday afternoon and the eastern=20
Great Lakes/PA/NY Wednesday night. The most impactful snow squalls=20
seem to be when above freezing conditions flash freeze behind the=20
cold front. In this case, the cold conditions get colder, so the=20
threat is perhaps more about visibility on roads the night with the
most revelry of the year. Please take caution NYE night in the=20
Interior Northeast. Key Messages are initiated highlighting this=20
NYE snow squall threat (see link at bottom).=20

In addition to the lake effect snows and the snow squalls, strong=20
upslope flow behind the arctic cold front and ahead of the=20
reinforcing trough axis over the central Appalachians will favor a
few hours of heavy snow Wednesday night over central WV northward=20
through western MD and into the Laurel Highlands in PA. Day 1.5
PWPF for >6" are 40-80% over this terrain.

WPC's 72-hour snowfall probabilities remain high (>70%) for=20
additional snow >18" in NW PA through the Chautauqua Ridge in=20
southwestern NY into the Buffalo Southtowns. Localized amounts=20
could exceed 2ft. Just southeast of Lake Ontario, WPC=20
probabilities are now high chances (60-80%) for additional snow=20
>18" in the region between Syracuse, Watertown, and east of=20
Rochester (centered around Oswego).=20
Over Michigan, totals will still be appreciable. WPC 72hr=20
probabilities for >12" over 40% in the eastern U.P. and around 25%
in northwestern Lower Michigan.=20


...Down East Maine...
Day 2... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Moderate

The pronounced mid-level trough axis causing snow squalls over the
Interior Northeast New Years night promotes surface low=20
development southeast of Nantucket Thursday morning. An 850mb low=20
tracks over Nova Scotia Thursday afternoon which should grow the=20
precip shield enough to send heavy snow bands into far Down East=20
Maine through the day Thursday. Rates of 1"/hr are likely in these=20
bands with a greater than 50% potential for >6" in southeastern=20
sections of Washington County on Day 2 per the 18Z PWPF.


...High Sierra Nevada to the Central Rockies...=20
Days 2-3... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Minor

A deep trough in the subtropical Eastern Pacific will trend weaker
as it tracks through southern CA early Thursday and over the=20
southern Sierra Nevada through Thursday afternoon. Ongoing precip
ahead of this wave will continue on the Sierra Nevada, but with
snow levels of 10,000ft. The height falls on Thursday bring the
snow levels over the Sierra Nevada down to 8500ft where there are
Day 2 PWPF of 40-70% for >6".=20

Precip also spreads over the Four Corners on Thursday with Thursday
night snow levels around 8500ft in UT/CO where Day 2.5 PWPF for >6"
are 40-60% and around 80% for the highest peaks in the Park Range
of CO.


...Columbia Basin and Gorge...
Days 2-3...

Light precip spreads over the Northwest Thursday and continues into
the weekend. Sufficient cold air in place should make for some
localize icing. Day 2/3 probabilities for >0.1" ice are in the=20
western Columbia Basin into the Columbia Gorge.


Jackson



...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
 Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=
stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!_vlyZufnYh1BMRzABzoFLfdiqeltTFi_akSGZJ-n_rQZY=
iucHV_H5wU0zY8ZM8FsO-3d6xFWZZNDagwrftq8QL09nMU$=20



$$

=3D =3D =3D
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