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TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
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FORMAT: flowed
ACUS02 KWNS 310655
SWODY2
SPC AC 310653

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1253 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN COASTAL
SOUTHERN CA...

...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible along a
portion of coastal southern California on New Year's Day morning.

...CA and the Southwest...
Guidance continues a decidedly northward trend to the evolution of
the compact shortwave trough, currently west of southern CA. Latest
indications are for this wave to reach the San Joaquin Valley around
midday Thursday, before slightly dampening over the southern Great
Basin. Thunderstorm potential appears greatest on Thursday morning
with isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible across southern
CA. Despite the early time of day, activity along the coast should
be surface-based along the periphery of low 60s dew points.
Buoyancy/instability will remain meager, given the expected
northerly track of the wave and attendant mesoscale cold core
displaced from the richer moisture plume. But guidance is consistent
with the depiction of 40-50 kt 700-mb flow across the Transverse
Ranges through midday. With some low-level hodograph curvature and
several CAMs suggestive of at least one rotating cell in the LA
Basin vicinity, have opted to include a small level 1-MRGL risk for
wind and tornado.

Confidence remains low in the degree of thunderstorm potential
farther north and east. Lower-level moisture east of CA should be
greater across AZ, but this may remain displaced too far south of
the latest consensus for the mid-level cold core. It is plausible
that much of the convection from the Central Valley to AZ will
remain low-topped, with thunderstorm probabilities around 10 percent
or less.

..Grams.. 12/31/2025

$$

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