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FOUS11 KWBC 310712
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
212 AM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

Valid 12Z Wed Dec 31 2025 - 12Z Sat Jan 03 2026


*** New Year's Eve Snow Squall Threat From Michigan through=20
 Interior Northeast ***

...Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Interior Northeast...=20
Days 1-3... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Major

A deep cold core low will meander near Hudson Bay through the rest
of the week as a series of reinforcing troughs and impulses track=20
on its southwest/southerly periphery over the Great Lakes and into=20
the Northeast. This will maintains bouts of lake-effect snow off=20
all the Great Lakes, but especially east of Lakes Erie and Ontario.
A rather robust upper through will move out of the Upper Great=20
Lakes this morning and across NY/PA tonight. CAMs show this arctic=20
front bringing a notable snow squall threat across eastern Michigan
this afternoon and the eastern Great Lakes/PA/NY tonight. Though=20
the most impactful snow squalls can be when unfrozen roads get=20
quickly covered with snow and temperatures plunge below freezing=20
(flash freeze behind the cold front), the region is currently cold=20
(10s/20s). Given it is New Year's Eve and the HREF shows the=20
highest probability of >1"/hr rates late this afternoon and=20
evening, the threat to drivers is more acute. Please take caution=20
tonight in the Interior Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. Key Messages are=20
highlighting this NYE snow squall threat (see link at bottom).=20

In addition to the lake effect snows and the snow squalls, strong=20
upslope flow behind the arctic cold front and ahead of the=20
reinforcing trough axis over the central Appalachians will favor a=20
few hours of heavy snow tonight over central WV northward through=20
western MD and into the Laurel Highlands in PA. WPC probabilities=20
for at least 6 inches of snow days 1-1.5 are 40-80% over this=20
terrain.

WPC's 72-hour snowfall probabilities remain high (>70%) for=20
additional snow >18" in NW PA through the Chautauqua Ridge in=20
southwestern NY into the Buffalo Southtowns. Localized amounts=20
could exceed 2ft. Just southeast of Lake Ontario, WPC probabilities
are high chances (>70%) for an additional 18" or more in the=20
region between Syracuse, Watertown, and east of Rochester (centered
around Oswego). Over Michigan, snowfall will trend farther north=20
each day, but totals will still be appreciable in the eastern U.P.=20
where WPC 72hr probabilities for >8" are 40-90% in the eastern U.P.
and around 30-60% in northwestern Lower Michigan.


...Down East Maine...
Day 1-2... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Minor to Moderate

The vigorous mid-level trough moving through the Great Lakes today
will reach New England just after midnight with a surface low over
northern NY into VT. By tomorrow morning, the system will continue
to deepen into the Gulf of Maine, spurring a sub-1000mb low that=20
could quickly deepen to below 990mb as it nears the Bay of Fundy=20
later in the afternoon. This could focus heavier bands of snow=20
right along the coast with >1"/hr rates (~50% probability per the=20
00Z HREF). The system will be quick-moving but could still yield=20
several inches of snow within a 12-hr window. WPC probabilities for
at least 6 inches of snow are >50% near and east of I-95 from the=20
Midcoast northeastward.


...High Sierra Nevada to the Central Rockies...=20
Days 2-3... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Minor

A deep trough in the subtropical Eastern Pacific will lift=20
northward then northeastward into NorCal tomorrow, bringing an=20
expanse of light to moderate precipitation to the Southwest to the=20
Interior West. High snow levels 9000-10,000ft will limit impacts=20
today. For tomorrow, as the trough moves inland, snow levels of=20
will fall to around 8500ft as precipitation gradually ends by late=20
Thursday into early Friday. Moisture will stream ENE across the=20
Great Basin to the CO Rockies where WPC probabilities of at least 8
inches of snow are >50% above 9000ft or so in the Park Range and=20
also into the Tetons in WY.

After a short break, another wave of precipitation will enter the=20
NorCal ranges and northern Sierra with lower snow levels region-=20
wide -- generally around 6500ft to the north and around 7000ft in=20
the northern Sierra. WPC probabilities for at least 8 inches of=20
snow through the period are >50% above about 9000ft.=20


...Columbia Basin and Gorge...
Days 2-3... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Minor

Light precip spreads over the Northwest Thursday and continues=20
into the weekend. Sufficient cold air in place could make for some=20
localize light icing. WPC probabilities for >0.10" ice are low=20
(<20%) in the western Columbia Basin into the Columbia Gorge.


Fracasso=20



...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect. Please see current=20
 Key Messages below...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=
stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!-B8Gd5J3CMHvmgwLB2jZswa-oCy6ibiKCvgu2UGA8lHj5=
LL7w1uqdiqDOaccQM7fRPu1w21VmSPQ1_ojNF0AYgSWa-g$=20



$$

=3D =3D =3D
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