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ACUS03 KWNS 310829
SWODY3
SPC AC 310828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are forecast, mainly Friday night into early
morning Saturday, across the central Gulf Coast and Deep South, as
well as along a portion of the Pacific Coast.

...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South...
At least isolated thunderstorm potential should return across a
portion of the interior Deep South on Friday night. Meager elevated
buoyancy should develop as low-level moistening occurs ahead of a
leading shortwave impulse tracking across the Mid-South to TN
Valley. This impulse may dampen downstream of a shortwave trough
progressing from the Four Corners to north TX. The bulk of MUCAPE
should largely remain at around 500 J/kg or less, owing to modest
mid-level lapse rates.

Farther south towards the central Gulf Coast from southeast LA to
the FL Panhandle, richer low-level moisture should spread somewhat
inland ahead of the more prominent shortwave trough. Most
convective-parameterized models suggest an increase in convective
development may occur at the end of the period within the low-level
theta-e gradient. Despite a generally zonal deep-layer wind profile,
adequate low-level hodograph curvature and robust speed shear
renders a conditional supercell concern. But poor mid-level lapse
rates renders concern for the degree of convective development prior
to 12Z, with the 00Z RRFS having minimal deep convective signal.
With minimal ML probabilities across this area as well, will defer
to later outlook cycles for a level 1-MRGL risk highlight.

...Coastal northern CA and southwest OR...
A large-scale upper trough will approach the Pacific Coast, with an
intense mid-level jetlet likely impinging on the northern CA coast
on Friday night. Fast deep-layer flow is anticipated within the
low-level warm conveyor, but should remain entirely meridional until
near the end of the period. Instability within the warm conveyor
appears minimal, suggesting that thunderstorm potential will remain
negligible amid strong gradient flow. Steepening mid-level lapse
rates may brush the northern CA to southwest OR coast in the early
morning Saturday. This should support scant buoyancy and potential
for very isolated thunderstorms.

..Grams.. 12/31/2025

$$

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