TZUTC: 0000
MSGID: 168136.weather@1:2320/105 2dbd2387
PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
BBSID: CAPCITY2
CHRS: ASCII 1
FORMAT: flowed
ACUS02 KWNS 311726
SWODY2
SPC AC 311724

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR COASTAL
SOUTHERN CA...

...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible along a
portion of coastal southern California on New Year's Day morning.

...Southern CA...
A compact midlevel shortwave trough is forecast to move across parts
of southern CA toward the San Joaquin Valley through the day, before
dampening somewhat as it approaches the Great Basin during the
evening. The strongest DCVA and cooling aloft will generally be
displaced north of the most favorable low-level moisture, but some
thunderstorm potential will continue to accompany this system for at
least the first part of the day.

The greatest relative potential for surface-based convection appears
to be across immediate coastal areas of southern CA and adjacent
offshore regions, where surface dewpoints are forecast to increase
into the low 60s F. Deep-layer shear will not be particularly
strong, but 30-40 kt of 700 mb flow and modest enlargement of
low-level hodographs could support potential for weakly rotating
storms. While confidence in sufficiently robust convection is not
high, locally damaging wind and/or a brief tornado cannot be ruled
out with any stronger cells near the coast, primarily during the
morning.

..Dean.. 12/31/2025

$$

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