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FOUS11 KWBC 312008
QPFHSD

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 PM EST Wed Dec 31 2025

Valid 00Z Thu Jan 01 2026 - 00Z Sun Jan 04 2026


*** New Year's Eve Snow Squall Threat For the Lower Great Lakes,
 Ohio Valley, through the Interior Northeast ***

...Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, Interior Northeast...=20
Days 1-2... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Moderate

A deep cold core low will meander near Hudson Bay through Friday.
The most notable reinforcing trough of this time crosses northern
MI this evening and the Interior Northeast overnight before
swinging through northern New England through Thursday. The Arctic
front tonight brings a notable snow squall threat at a bit slower
timing than previous forecasts. 12Z CAMs note the eastern Midwest
and eastern Great Lakes should get the front in the mid-evening
hours with the Upper Ohio Valley, PA, and southern NY overnight
with some semblance crossing NYC prior to sunrise Thursday/New
Years Day. The frontal crossing of Lake Erie in particular this
evening looks to enhance ongoing LES from westerly flow into areas
just south of Buffalo. The 12Z HREF highlights a risk period for
2"/hr snow from 22Z to 03Z south of Buffalo through the Chautauqua
Ridge before tapering off for a few hours as the fetch turns NWly
behind the front.

Though the most impactful snow squalls can be when=20
unfrozen roads get quickly covered with snow and temperatures=20
plunge below freezing (flash freeze behind the cold front), the=20
region is currently cold (10s/20s) and the front will make it
colder. Given it is New Year's Eve the the timing for much of
western NY/PA and eastern Ohio is around midnight, please take=20
caution tonight on the roads. Key Messages have been updated. (see
link at bottom).

Continued westerly upslope flow ahead of the arctic cold front will
retain upslope snow showers on the central Appalachians with rates
increasing right up until the cold frontal passage early Thursday.
The 12Z HREF indicates likely >1"/hr snow rates working their way
down the Laurel Highlands in PA, western MD, and central WV from=20
02Z to 12Z where Day 1 WPC probabilities for >6" snow are 40-90%.=20

Flow becomes WNWly again late Thursday with LES off Erie and in
particular Lake Ontario then through Friday. 48hr probs for >12"
additional Days 1/2 are 50-80% southeast of both lakes with the
greatest risk generally just north of Syracuse.


...Eastern Maine...=20
Day 1... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Moderate

The vigorous mid-level trough moving through the Great Lakes this
evening will reach New England late tonight with a more pronounced
surface low tracking over the Gulf of Maine Thursday. This shifts
the heavy snow focus farther inland with a heavy snow forecast
now from the central Maine coast up through eastern Maine. The 12Z
HREF provides an excellent picture of the threat with >1"/hr rates
moving onto the central coast around 14Z and rotating through
eastern Maine through 22Z. Day 1 PWPF for >6" is now 50-80% from
Penobscot Bay east along the coast and north through areas east of
I-95.=20


...High Sierra Nevada through the Central Rockies...=20
Days 1-3... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Minor

A deep trough in the subtropical Eastern Pacific will lift=20
NNE through the central CA coast early Thursday before crossing the
Sierra Nevada and into Nevada Thursday evening, reaching CO Friday
morning. High snow levels of 9000-10,000ft ahead of the low will=20
limit impacts into Thursday morning. However, as the trough moves=20
inland, snow levels on the Sierra Nevada will fall to around=20
7500ft Thursday afternoon, bringing heavy snow until precipitation=20
ends that evening. The 12Z HREF highlights 16Z to 22Z Thursday as a
period of >1" snow rates on the southern Sierra Nevada.=20

Moisture will stream ENE across the Great Basin ahead of the
trough to the CO Rockies where Day 2 WPC probabilities of >6" of=20
snow are >50% above 8000ft or so in the Wasatch Front, the Park=20
Range in CO, the Tetons in WY. Precip tapers off Friday afternoon
over the Rockies.

The next wave of precipitation spreads east across CA Friday night
with snow levels around 6500ft. This is the first part of prolonged
precip into CA through at least Monday. Day 3 WPC probabilities=20
for >8" of snow through the period are >50% above about 7000ft on=20
the length of the Sierra Nevada and the CA Cascades/Klamath Mtns.=20


...Columbia Basin and Gorge...
Days 1-2... Maximum impact level from WSSI: Minor

Light precip spreads over the Northwest Thursday before tapering
offs Friday. Sufficient cold air in place looks to make localized=20
light icing in the western Columbia Basin into the Columbia Gorge
where Day 1.5 WPC probabilities for >0.10" ice are now 20-40%.


Jackson=20




...Winter Storm Key Messages are in effect for Snow Squalls tonight
and linked here...

https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/key_messages/Late=
stKeyMessage_1.png__;!!DZ3fjg!5OX3cFckbTslL-BxvRSg_xmJKwNMApRf2yOgI7VCdKdSs=
r80ePeKcI981KD-2qgLfPPHzgK4cUoYhqwgooy0L3DTPmU$=20



$$

=3D =3D =3D
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