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ACUS02 KWNS 010643
SWODY2
SPC AC 010642

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday or Friday night.

...Central Gulf Coast and the Deep South...
A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should move across the Mid-South
to the southern Appalachians. An upstream shortwave trough will
progress from the Four Corners east-southeast across north TX. The
00Z NAM is an outlier with its phasing of these features, while
other guidance maintains separate impulses. Weak elevated MUCAPE is
anticipated with the lead impulse, along the northern periphery of
lower-level moisture return emanating northeast of the northwest
Gulf. Sufficient saturation/ascent should occur for increasing
convection on Friday evening across parts of the interior Deep South
to TN Valley. The southern portion of this activity may yield
isolated thunder coverage on Friday night.

Farther south, the outlier NAM appears aggressive with early morning
Saturday convective development near the central Gulf Coast, amid
strong deep-layer shear and modest near-surface buoyancy. However,
most other parametrized guidance and especially CAMs struggle to
generate deep convection through 12Z Saturday given weak lapse rates
and rather dry mid-levels. Unconditional probabilities for hazard
still appear to be below level-1 MRGL risk thresholds.

...Northern CA and southwest OR...
A deep mid/upper trough will gradually approach the Pacific Coast
through early Saturday, as an intense jet spreads into northern CA.
Despite an initially pronounced low-level warm conveyor, instability
is expected to remain negligible until Friday night. Gradual
steepening of mid-level lapse rates should occur along coastal areas
of northern CA and southwest OR, and potentially reach the
Sacramento Valley prior to 12Z. This may support very isolated
thunderstorm development overnight to early Saturday morning. Any
lightning-producing convection could be coincident with strong
gradient winds, but the convective contribution to damaging-wind
potential will likely be limited by the expected scant buoyancy.

..Grams.. 01/01/2026

$$

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