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ACUS03 KWNS 010828
SWODY3
SPC AC 010828

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND NORTHERN CA TO COASTAL SOUTHWEST OR...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on
Saturday, and the Sacramento Valley to coastal northern
California-southwest Oregon during the late afternoon to evening.

...Southeast...
A lower-amplitude shortwave trough should progress east across the
Lower MS Valley on Saturday morning and off the South Atlantic Coast
by Saturday night. Attendant surface cyclone should remain weak and
track from central AL to off coastal SC by evening. Timing of
large-scale ascent with the trough should yield increasing
convective coverage by late morning to midday, focused along the
northeast Gulf Coast to the Savannah Valley. Much of the region
should remain within the MLCAPE gradient as a plume of moderate
buoyancy becomes established over the northwest Gulf to central Gulf
Coast. Guidance consensus suggests that low-level winds may
gradually dampen through the day and become displaced east of richer
boundary-layer moisture as the surface low moves towards the coast.
With a predominately west-southwesterly wind profile, deep-layer
speed shear should be the primary driver of organized convection. A
mix of all hazards appears plausible, although a corridor of greater
damaging wind potential may be evident in later outlooks.

...Northern CA to coastal southwest OR...
Guidance appears to be converging towards multiple shortwave
impulses ejecting northeast from a large-scale trough off the West
Coast. The more vigorous impulse should impinge on coastal OR around
Saturday evening, while a separate impulse dampens from the Bay Area
to the Sierra NV Mountains on Saturday afternoon. The southern
impulse should be favorably timed with afternoon boundary-layer
heating over the Sacramento Valley, where meager MLCAPE of 250-500
J/kg may develop. Amid a swath of strong mid-level
south-southwesterlies, an elongated hodograph could favor splitting
weak supercell structures that pose a risk for a brief tornado and
small hail. The northern impulse should be accompanied by very
strong low-level southerlies from 60-70 kts at 850 mb. While
buoyancy will remain scant, low-topped convection along the northern
CA to southwest OR coast could pose a threat for severe gusts.

..Grams.. 01/01/2026

$$

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