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ACUS48 KWNS 010935
SWOD48
SPC AC 010933

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0333 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe potential appears low through much of the period, with an
increase possible late next week. While run-to-run predictability
has been poor, latest guidance appears to be trending somewhat more
consistently with the evolution of an upper trough off the West
Coast. This feature may evolve as a lower-latitude wave across Baja
CA and northern Mexico, or along the international border in the
Southwest States, before eventually emerging near TX. While
predictability is low for spatiotemporal aspects of this wave, it
may eventually interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the
western Gulf into the South-Central States. SPC-CSU GEFS ML probs
highlight a 5 percent on D8/Thursday (although seemingly biased too
far north). Meanwhile, NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs highlight only a 2
percent on D8, but have a 10 percent on D9/Friday.

..Grams.. 01/01/2026

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