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ACUS02 KWNS 011714
SWODY2
SPC AC 011712

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1112 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Friday.

...Central Gulf Coast and Deep South...
A low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough will move from the
south-central Plains toward the TN Valley through the period, while
a somewhat more vigorous shortwave progresses east-southeastward
from the Four Corners region toward the lower MS Valley. The
combination of these features will result in an elongated surface
low that will extend from northern MS/AL toward southern LA by
Friday evening.

Returning low-level moisture will result in a somewhat conditionally
favorable environment Friday afternoon from parts of LA into
southern MS, as MLCAPE increases to around 500 J/kg amid
strengthening deep-layer shear. However, poor midlevel lapse rates
and generally weak ascent across the warm sector may tend to limit
surface-based storm potential, with most guidance showing no diurnal
development across this area. A strengthening low-level jet will aid
in the development of elevated convection Friday evening, mainly
across parts of central/northern MS/AL/GA. Weak buoyancy should tend
to limit the organized severe threat with any elevated storms.
Convection may also tend to increase along the immediate central
Gulf Coast near the end of the period, but warm midlevel
temperatures are expected to limit storm depth and intensity in this
area through 12Z Saturday morning.

...Northern CA into southwest OR...
A deep mid/upper-level trough and embedded deep-layer cyclone will
gradually approach the central and northern Pacific Coast through
the period. Within the large-scale trough, an embedded vorticity
maximum is forecast to approach northern CA and southwest OR by mid
to late evening. Colder temperatures aloft and some steepening of
midlevel lapse rates will overspread the region as this vorticity
maximum moves through, which will increase the threat for sporadic
lightning flashes with any stronger convective elements.

Most CAM guidance depicts development of a narrow rain band in
association with the lead vorticity maximum, which moves over
immediate coastal regions between 03-06Z. This band may be
coincident with gusty/locally damaging winds, given the
strengthening background wind field (50+ kt at 850 mb). However,
with stronger cooling aloft and steepening of low-level lapse rates
generally only expected in the wake of this band, the extent to
which any deeper convective processes contribute to wind-damage
potential is uncertain and may remain limited.

..Dean.. 01/01/2026

$$

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