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ACUS02 KWNS 020649
SWODY2
SPC AC 020647

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1247 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST
AND PARTS OF CA/OR...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on
Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal
northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening.

...Southeast...
A positive-tilt shortwave trough will progress east across the Lower
MS Valley to off the South Atlantic Coast by Saturday evening. An
attendant weak surface cyclone should track from central AL to
offshore of SC by 00Z, with a cold front trailing west-southwest to
the central Gulf Coast. Low-level warm conveyor convection should
increase during the mid to late morning, with a separate round of
thunderstorms developing near the surface low to along the front by
midday into the afternoon. Low-level hodograph curvature will be
modestly enlarged within the warm conveyor as it shifts east through
the day, but surface-based instability should remain weak with
low-probability tornado/wind threats.

It appears probable that a corridor of moderate buoyancy with MLCAPE
of 1000-1500 J/kg should extend from around the mouth of the MS
River towards the western FL Panhandle by midday. However, low-level
flow will be increasingly veered in this portion of the warm sector
ahead of the front. Sufficient deep-layer speed shear should exist
for a few supercells with mid-level rotation, which may produce
isolated severe hail and eventually isolated damaging winds as
storms cluster during the afternoon.

...Central Valley to coastal northern CA/southwest OR...
Most guidance depicts multiple shortwave impulses ejecting
northeastward from a deep upper trough off the Pacific Coast. The
southern impulse should move across central CA during the afternoon,
while a more vigorous northern impulse impinges on coastal OR during
the afternoon to early evening.

The southern shortwave will be favorably timed for diurnal
convective development across the Sacramento and northern San
Joaquin Valleys. Meager buoyancy should develop amid an elongated
hodograph. This should be sufficient for transient rotating cells,
which could pose a low-probability threat of a brief tornado.
Sub-severe hail and locally gusty winds may also occur.

The northern shortwave will be accompanied by a renewed
strengthening of low-level flow, likely reaching 50-65 kts along the
northern CA/southwest OR coast. Buoyancy will remain scant, but cold
mid-level temperatures aloft should support low-topped convection
that could contribute to localized severe gusts. Transient rotating
cells may also develop offshore and approach the northern CA coast
with a waterspout/low-probability brief tornado risk.

..Grams.. 01/02/2026

$$

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