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ACUS48 KWNS 020940
SWOD48
SPC AC 020939

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the
South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley
mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the
broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least
low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.

Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude
shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the
week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of
this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to
interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf
into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates
severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.

In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus
suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West
late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level
southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast.
Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the
lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion
of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML
V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs
on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.

..Grams.. 01/02/2026

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