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ACUS02 KWNS 021726
SWODY2
SPC AC 021725

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1125 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 031200Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHEAST AND PARTS OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE OREGON
COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast on
Saturday, and the Sacramento/northern San Joaquin Valleys to coastal
northern California-southwest Oregon in the afternoon/early evening.

...Southeast...
Late-morning surface observations across the TX/LA/MS region show
the early stages of moisture return ahead of a gradually deepening
surface low to the west across the southern Plains. The ejection of
a low-amplitude mid-level perturbation (noted in water-vapor imagery
over the Four Corners region as of 17 UTC) will lead to modest
strengthening and an eastward progression of the surface low into
the Southeast states through Saturday evening.

Thunderstorms will likely develop within the warm/moist advection
regime and along a weak surface trough/cold front by mid/late
afternoon across portions of AL, GA, and northern FL. A plume of low
to mid-60s dewpoints will likely become established by late
afternoon across the FL Panhandle into southern GA, and should
support MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg, though ongoing
showers/thunderstorms may modulate overall destabilization to some
degree. 50-knot mid-level flow will support adequate deep-layer
shear for organized convection, including the potential for
semi-discrete supercells before gradual upscale growth occurs
through late afternoon/evening. Some severe wind/hail and tornado
threat is expected to materialize, but uncertainty regarding the
degree of destabilization within the warm sector and storm mode
limits confidence for higher risk probabilities. This uncertainty is
reflected in 12z CAM/HREF guidance, which depicts only modest
signals for intense convection. That said, a more focused corridor
of severe risk may emerge along the FL/GA line where the convective
environment should be relatively most favorable for supercells.

...Central Valley into the CA/OR Coasts...
A strong upper trough off the West Coast is expected to move inland
over the next 24 hours. Multiple bands of showers and thunderstorms
will likely spread across northern CA and OR through peak heating
when modest low-level moisture (low 50s dewpoints) will likely
support a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE. Southerly low-level flow through
the Central Valley will maintain some low-level hodograph curvature
that may be favorable for a brief tornado or two. Additionally,
40-45 flow between the 1-3 km layer may augment downdraft winds and
support sporadic wind damage and perhaps a few severe gusts.

..Moore.. 01/02/2026

$$

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