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ACUS03 KWNS 021925
SWODY3
SPC AC 021924

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0124 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level wave traversing the eastern CONUS at the beginning of
the period will continue to shift off the East Coast through the day
Sunday. A trailing cold front pushing southward along the FL
Peninsula will likely support shallow convective showers along the
coasts, but warm mid-level temperatures coincident with dry air will
limit the potential for deep convection and lightning production.
Across the West, broad southwesterly flow will persist along the
coast and into the Great Basin. Thunderstorm potential will most
likely be confined to central CA and perhaps along the northern CA
and OR/WA coasts where cool mid-level temperatures will overspread
modest low-level moisture. Weaker low-level wind profiles compared
to D2/Saturday should limit the potential for organized convection.
Sporadic lightning flashes appear possible further inland across the
northern Great Basin given broad-scale ascent and some degree of
mid-level cooling, but the signal for appreciable MUCAPE among all
guidance is too limited to introduce additional thunder areas.

..Moore.. 01/02/2026

$$

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