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Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight.

...20z Update...
No major changes were made to the prior valid outlook. Scattered
elevated thunderstorms remain possible over portions of the
Southeast tonight associated with the advancing shortwave trough.
Weak buoyancy should largely limit the severe risk.

To the west, isolated thunderstorms are also possible over portions
of northern coastal CA. Increasingly strong westerly flow aloft
could support an occasional stronger gust with an advancing frontal
rain band. But again, weak buoyancy will likely preclude a
greater-than sporadic severe threat through tonight.

..Lyons.. 01/02/2026

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026/

...Southeast States...
Multiple shortwave troughs, including across the Mid-South and High
Plains early today, will progress east-southeastward toward the
region within amplifying flow aloft. This will influence weak
cyclogenesis, progressing from northeast Texas toward the
ArkLaMiss/Alabama tonight, as a warm/moist sector becomes
increasingly established across southeast Louisiana, southern
portions of Mississippi/Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle,
with low/some middle 60s F surface dewpoints tonight.

The potential for isolated elevated thunderstorms will increase late
today, and more so tonight regionally. Moderate mid-level flow will
extend across the region and vertical shear will be strong enough to
support storm organization. However, weak buoyancy is expected to
limit updraft depth and persistence, keeping the severe potential
low. Some surface-based instability is possible late tonight/early
Saturday for coastal areas, but lingering warm air aloft/modest
forcing for ascent will likely limit the overall severe potential
regionally until the post-12z Day 2/Saturday time frame.

...Northern/Central California...
A prominent upper trough centered around -134W will gradually
progress eastward with a lead shortwave trough reaching coastal
portions of northern California and southwest Oregon late tonight
and early Saturday. A related influx of moistening and steepening
mid-level lapse rates will yield an increasing potential for some
thunderstorms tonight, particularly for coastal areas as a frontal
band moves inland. Considerably strengthening deep-layer winds may
contribute to some potential for convectively enhanced wind gusts,
but severe thunderstorm-related severe potential should remain
limited.

$$

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