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ACUS02 KWNS 030645
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SPC AC 030644

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday or Sunday night.

...Discussion...
Low-probability thunder potential exists across a broad portion of
the West Coast and CA Central Valley, as well as in southeast FL.

Across the West, the next in a series of shortwave troughs will
approach the Pacific Northwest coast by late afternoon-early evening
Sunday. Farther south, low-amplitude shortwave impulses should
gradually move east across central/southern CA to the eastern Great
Basin. Minimal buoyancy will remain a limiting factor to greater
than very isolated thunder coverage. But cold mid-level temperatures
will favor potential for sporadic lightning flashes that diurnally
peak during the afternoon to early evening.

Over southeast FL, a minority of guidance indicates potential for
convection to briefly develop along a weak cold front sinking south.
Gradual mid-level warming is expected through the afternoon, as a
lingering trough shifts towards the Bahamas, limiting the temporal
window for deep convection to form. Thunderstorm probabilities
appear to be around 10 percent.

..Grams.. 01/03/2026

$$

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