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ACUS48 KWNS 030932
SWOD48
SPC AC 030931

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0331 AM CST Sat Jan 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the
South-Central States by late week. Guidance spread remains large
with the handling of a lower-latitude shortwave trough that will
initially be off the southern CA/Baja CA coast on D4/Tuesday.
Non-ECMWF deterministic guidance largely eject this wave quickly
east-northeastward into the southern Great Plains by late
D5/Wednesday night. The ECMWF, EC-AIFS, and AIGFS maintain a slower
and more reasonable scenario of progression through D6/Thursday.
This will probably interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from
the western Gulf, with some severe potential in a portion of the
South-Central States. Spatiotemporal detail differences exist even
among the preferred slower guidance and the majority of GEFS/ECENS
ML probs remain below 15 percent for Thursday.

For the broad upper trough over the West, latest EC-AIFS and the
ECMWF now depict potential of a negative-tilt evolution compared to
prior runs and other guidance. Spread is quite large within the
ECENS for both the AI/non-AI, indicative of a poorly predictable
pattern for shortwave impulses embedded within the broader trough.
But with potential for fast mid-level southwesterlies overlapping
seasonably rich low-level moisture emanating north from the western
Gulf, and some scenarios indicative of cyclogenesis over the central
states, a severe area highlight may eventually be warranted on
D7/Friday.

..Grams.. 01/03/2026

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