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ACUS03 KWNS 040737
SWODY3
SPC AC 040736

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0136 AM CST Sun Jan 04 2026

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm potential is negligible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

...Discussion...
Conditions will be too dry/stable for lightning-producing convection
across much of the CONUS through the period. A trio of exceptions
are apparent where thunderstorm probabilities appear to be nonzero,
but below 10 percent. Within a fast zonal flow regime over the
Northwest, a lower-amplitude shortwave impulse should progress along
the WA/BC border towards the northern Rockies on Tuesday night.
Colder mid-level temperatures in the wake of this impulse combined
with persistent onshore low-level flow might yield a brief
thunderstorm overnight along the WA coast. Farther south, a closed
upper low off the southern CA coast should continue to drift south
and remain west of Baja CA. Much of the guidance is insistent that
instability will remain too minimal to warrant a thunderstorm risk
along the far southern CA coast through 12Z Wednesday. Finally,
flimsy elevated buoyancy could develop in vicinity of a progressive
shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes on Tuesday. A brief
thunderstorm or two could occur within an emerging mixed-phase
precipitation swath.

..Grams.. 01/04/2026

$$

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