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ACUS03 KWNS 050756
SWODY3
SPC AC 050755

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0155 AM CST Mon Jan 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific
Northwest on Wednesday and across parts of the southern Great Plains
to the Ozark Plateau Wednesday night.

...Coastal WA/OR...
A shortwave trough should reach the coastal Pacific Northwest by
midday/early afternoon Wednesday, before amplifying inland into the
Great Basin by 12Z Thursday. Cold mid-level temperatures of -30 to
-35 C at 500 mb in conjunction with onshore low-level flow should
yield scant surface-based buoyancy along the immediate coast by late
morning. Sporadic lightning flashes are possible through the
afternoon amid widely scattered low-topped convection near and in
the wake of trough passage.

...West TX to the Ozarks...
In response to the aforementioned amplifying upper trough, a
low-latitude shortwave trough will accelerate east-northeast from
west of Baja CA. How far downstream this trough reaches by 12Z
Thursday remains uncertain. The 00Z EC-AIFS has been quite
consistent with a slower ejection and appears more reasonable given
typical guidance biases. It is an outlier along with the 00Z GFS in
holding the trough over northwest Mexico, while the majority of
guidance has it ejecting onto the southern High Plains. This will
impact the initial amplitude of cyclogenesis over the OK/northern TX
Panhandles vicinity through Wednesday night.

Modified low-level moisture return from the western Gulf will
initially be modest beneath an elevated mixed layer. Forecast
soundings also suggest weak lapse rates with nearly saturated
upper-level profiles well downstream of the low-latitude trough. As
such, elevated buoyancy should increase but remain weak. Guidance
also has pronounced differences in the degree of convective
development prior to 12Z Thursday, likely related to the degree of
preceding MUCIN and timing of strengthening large-scale ascent.
Opted to broadly aligned with the low 03Z SREF calibrated
thunderstorm probabilities pending potentially greater guidance
consistency in later outlooks.

..Grams.. 01/05/2026

$$

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