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ACUS03 KWNS 051930
SWODY3
SPC AC 051929

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0129 PM CST Mon Jan 05 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
General thunderstorms are possible along the coastal Pacific
Northwest on Wednesday and across parts of the southern Great Plains
to the Ozark Plateau Wednesday night.

...Southern Plains/Ozarks...
An upper low currently off the southern CA coast is forecast to
progress eastward into the southern Plains by late Wednesday into
early Thursday morning. Gradual low-level moistening will occur
through the day across TX and into OK as low-level flow strengthens
in response to steady cyclogenesis across the Plains. Additionally,
ascent ahead of the approaching upper wave will promote adequate
destabilization for MUCAPE values of around 500 J/kg between 06-12
UTC across northern TX into OK and the Ozarks. While buoyancy
profiles will most likely remain too limited for substantially deep
convection, strengthening wind profiles may support transient
organized storms overnight across northern TX into parts of OK.
Confidence remains too limited at this time to introduce risk
probabilities, but highlights may be needed if new guidance trends
towards the more aggressive extended-range RRFS solutions.

...WA/OR Coast...
Strong ascent and cold mid-level temperatures associated with an
approaching upper trough will once again support adequate buoyancy
for isolated thunderstorms off and along the coast of the Pacific
Northwest through the day Wednesday. Lifted indices on the order of
-1 to -2 C suggest that buoyancy profiles will likely remain too
limited for strong convection and any appreciable severe threat.

..Moore.. 01/05/2026

$$

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