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ACUS02 KWNS 060658
SWODY2
SPC AC 060656

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

Valid 071200Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
WEST AND NORTH TX INTO OK...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe storms are possible Wednesday night from
west-central Texas into parts of Oklahoma.

...Southern Plains...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially near Baja California is
forecast to eject east-northeastward and take on a negative tilt as
it approaches the Southern Plains Wednesday night. Previously slower
guidance (such as the EC-AIFS and GFS) has trended toward a somewhat
faster solution with this system. A surface low is forecast to
deepen over the south-central High Plains during the evening.
Low-level moisture will spread northward, with 60s F dewpoints
potentially reaching the Red River region prior to the end of the
period.

As ascent attendant to the shortwave trough impinges upon the
increasing low-level moisture, thunderstorm development is expected
Wednesday night across parts of west/north TX into OK, which may
spread toward the Ozark Plateau prior to 12Z Thursday.
Initial MUCAPE of near/above 500 J/kg and increasing deep-layer
shear could support some storm organization.

There may be a brief window for near-surface-based development
near/after 03Z across parts of west-central TX, but the bulk of
convection will likely be somewhat elevated. The buoyancy profile
will be hampered by poor mid/upper-level lapse rates, and lingering
near-surface stability will likely persist across most of the warm
sector, resulting in uncertainty regarding severe potential with any
organized cells/clusters. However, given the expectation for
strongly forced convection Wednesday night within a favorably
sheared environment, a Marginal Risk has been introduced. Isolated
strong/damaging gusts will be possible, and hail cannot be ruled out
with initial development, before buoyancy becomes increasingly
depleted with time. Given the strength of low-level shear/SRH, the
potential for near-surface-based development will continue to be
monitored regarding any tornado threat.

...Pacific Northwest coast...
Low-topped convection with sporadic lightning flashes will be
possible through at least the morning and afternoon near the Pacific
Northwest coast, as a mid/upper-level shortwave trough moves across
the region. Cold temperatures aloft (less than -30C at 500 mb) will
support meager buoyancy (with MUCAPE generally 100-200 J/kg),
primarily near and in the wake of a cold front. Relatively strong
low-level flow could support gusty winds with this convection,
though the very weak buoyancy is expected to limit organized severe
potential.

..Dean.. 01/06/2026

$$

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