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ACUS03 KWNS 060827
SWODY3
SPC AC 060826

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0226 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
OK/TX INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from eastern Texas
and Oklahoma into parts of the Ozarks and lower/mid Mississippi
Valley.

...Eastern TX/OK into the Lower/Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley...

Guidance still varies somewhat regarding the timing and strength of
the primary synoptic features across the CONUS on Thursday. In
general, a mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to eject
quickly northeastward from the southern Plains towards the Great
Lakes on Thursday, as an upstream shortwave trough moves from the
Southwest toward the southern Rockies. In conjunction with the lead
shortwave trough, a surface low is forecast to move from the
south-central Plains northeastward toward the lower Great Lakes by
the end of the period.

Elevated convection will likely be ongoing Thursday morning across
parts of OK/KS into the Ozarks, in association with the ejecting
shortwave. Despite the meager instability, some organized convection
may be ongoing Thursday morning, given the strength of the forcing
and deep-layer flow/shear. Gusty and locally damaging winds could
accompany any organized line segments as they approach parts of the
OH Valley, though lingering low-level stability will tend to limit
the magnitude of the threat, especially with northeast extent.

In the wake of the ejecting shortwave and early-day convection, a
relatively large and strongly sheared warm sector will extend from
the Gulf Coast into the lower/mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley.
However, with generally poor lapse rates, weak to modest buoyancy,
and a tendency for the strongest ascent to lift away from the warm
sector with time, organized-severe potential during the afternoon
and evening is uncertain.

There is a modest signal in ECMWF/GFS and related ensemble guidance
for storm development Thursday evening/night from near the ArkLaTex
into the lower OH Valley, with the deterministic ECMWF also
depicting robust elevated convection into parts of central TX late
in the period. If storms can mature within the favorably sheared
environment, then some threat for locally damaging wind, isolated
hail, and/or a tornado could evolve later in the period. A rather
conditional Marginal Risk has been included where ensemble and
calibrated guidance depicts at least a low-probability severe threat
through the period.

..Dean.. 01/06/2026

$$

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