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ACUS48 KWNS 061002
SWOD48
SPC AC 061000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0400 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...D4/Friday: Lower MS Valley vicinity...
A mid/upper-level shortwave trough initially over the southern
Rockies is forecast to take on a positive tilt as it moves eastward
on Friday, as a northern-stream shortwave trough digs from the
Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Great Lakes. Some guidance has
trended weaker and farther south with a surface low developing near
the lower MS Valley by Friday evening, though a relatively large
warm sector is still expected to be in place through most of the
period. Scattered to widespread storm development is expected from
parts of east TX into the lower MS Valley, with sufficient
deep-layer shear for organized convection and some attendant severe
threat. Some adjustments to the 15% area have been made, based on
guidance trends regarding surface low placement and the northward
extent of the favorable warm sector.

...D5/Saturday: Parts of the East...
Uncertainty regarding the synoptic pattern increases by D5/Saturday,
with varying solutions regarding the extent of mid/upper-level
trough amplification across the eastern CONUS, and the strength of
the related surface low. Guidance generally agrees that buoyancy
will be limited across much of the warm sector on Saturday. However,
any organized convection that develops Friday night may persist into
Saturday morning across parts of the Southeast, with some potential
for an isolated severe threat. Farther north, the strongest
solutions (such as the 00Z deterministic ECMWF) depict notable
intensification of low/midlevel flow from the Ohio Valley into the
Mid Atlantic, which could result in some damaging-wind potential
with any low-topped convection along or ahead of an advancing cold
front.

..Dean.. 01/06/2026

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