TZUTC: 0000
MSGID: 168302.weather@1:2320/105 2dc4cc64
PID: Synchronet 3.21a-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
TID: SBBSecho 3.28-Linux master/123f2d28a Jul 12 2025 GCC 12.2.0
BBSID: CAPCITY2
CHRS: ASCII 1
FORMAT: flowed
ACUS01 KWNS 061249
SWODY1
SPC AC 061248

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0648 AM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

Valid 061300Z - 071200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorm probabilities across the U.S. appear less than 10
percent today through tonight.

...Synopsis...
Early-morning satellite imagery shows two low-amplitude shortwave
troughs, one moving through the middle OH Valley and the other
moving through the central Plains, embedded within a predominantly
zonal regime that extends across the CONUS. Both of these waves will
progress eastward throughout the day, with another shortwave
dropping southeastward from Canadian Prairies through the northern
Plains and Upper Midwest. Stable conditions will precede these
waves, with any notable low-level moisture displaced well south over
central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley.

Farther west, current satellite imagery shows a deepening cyclone
over central/southern CA coast. This cyclone is forecast to continue
southward throughout much of the period before pivoting more
southeastward and eventually eastward towards the northern Baja
Peninsula. Deeper convection is anticipated in proximity to this
cyclone, but is currently expected to remain offshore and/or farther
south along the northern Baja Coast.

Lastly, a lead shortwave trough is expected to progress quickly
across the Pacific Northwest tonight, ahead of a deeper shortwave
expected Wednesday. Cooling low to mid-level temperatures could
result in shallow buoyancy ahead of this wave, which could result in
sporadic flashes along the WA coast after 00Z. Current expectation
is for lightning coverage to be less than 10%.

..Mosier/Bentley.. 01/06/2026

$$

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