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FOUS30 KWBC 061455
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
955 AM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Day 1
Valid 16Z Tue Jan 06 2026 - 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Cook/Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 07 2026 - 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is
less than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 08 2026 - 12Z Fri Jan 09 2026

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS NORTHERN
ILLINOIS...

Surface low over the Southern Plains will spawn and move northeast
through the period with an established meridional flow projected to
usher elevated moisture poleward, even as far north as the Great
Lakes. Instability will be limited, but non-zero across the Mississippi
Valley with relatively modest MUCAPE on the eastern periphery of
the cyclone. PWAT anomalies approaching record territory would
normally spur greater emphasis on heavy precipitation, but the
relative nature of the PWAT anomaly being in January stunts the
maximum potential limiting more widespread nature of flash flood
prospects.

That said, north of I-70, grounds are mostly frozen from the long
stretch of sub-freezing temperatures maintaining a lower prospect
for rainfall absorption and a higher propensity for run off. Areas
along and north of I-80 across northern IL has the deeper sub-soil
layers frozen with grounds likely to encounter majority run off
during the period as moderate to locally heavy rainfall spreads
north. In collaboration with the local Chicago WFO, a small MRGL
was maintained across northern IL to account for the local flooding
threat given the parameters of elevated PWATs and higher risk for
run off. Urbanization in this area is also very prevalent, so heavy
rains could even spur some flooding risks due to poor drainage in
spots.

Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ELk9hTcNW3DDD8sD5VCZarXXpZuEiJcCPQp7-QX8-H_=
qFSE-DA8LSGEGZS3Ja-gUs-AiSJ2DSg-ZCU0s_xgTHZml8w$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ELk9hTcNW3DDD8sD5VCZarXXpZuEiJcCPQp7-QX8-H_=
qFSE-DA8LSGEGZS3Ja-gUs-AiSJ2DSg-ZCU0s_xgWAQrBdw$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6ELk9hTcNW3DDD8sD5VCZarXXpZuEiJcCPQp7-QX8-H_=
qFSE-DA8LSGEGZS3Ja-gUs-AiSJ2DSg-ZCU0s_xgrPuv7E4$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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