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ACUS03 KWNS 061927
SWODY3
SPC AC 061926

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0126 PM CST Tue Jan 06 2026

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
OK/TX INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER/MID MS VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday from eastern Texas
and Oklahoma into parts of the Ozarks and lower/mid Mississippi
Valley.

...Eastern TX/OK into the Lower/Mid MS Valley and lower OH Valley...

Guidance has come into relatively better agreement with the timing
and overall evolution of a compact midlevel impulse and accompanying
surface low ejecting northeastward from the southern Plains toward
the Great Lakes through the period. This will result in the
development of an expansive warm sector characterized by partially
modified Gulf moisture and somewhat cool surface temperatures. Given
poor/modest lapse rates, buoyancy will remain fairly limited --
especially with northward extent. Nevertheless, strong deep-layer
flow/shear will overspread the warm sector, resulting in an
expansive area of conditional severe potential.

Widely scattered elevated thunderstorms with a risk of marginally
severe hail and locally damaging gusts will be spreading
east-northeastward from the southern Plains into the lower/middle MS
Valley at the start of the period. There will be some potential for
this activity to become surface-based and intensify as it tracks
east-northeastward though the afternoon, though this will be largely
dependent on the degree of surface heating in the warm sector. If
storms can root at the surface, a mesoscale corridor of higher
severe potential will be possible -- posing a risk of severe wind
gusts and perhaps a tornado.

Thunderstorms will generally spread northeastward toward the lower
OH Valley in tandem with the surface low through the day, and severe
potential becomes more uncertain with northward extent (given the
low CAPE/high shear parameter space). A small northward expansion of
severe probabilities was made where near-surface-based storms will
be possible amid strengthening low-level flow/shear, and depending
on destabilization, further expansions will be possible.

..Weinman.. 01/06/2026

$$

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