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ACUS03 KWNS 070831
SWODY3
SPC AC 070830

Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 AM CST Wed Jan 07 2026

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLAMISS
INTO PARTS OF THE MID-SOUTH...

...SUMMARY...
Strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday
from the lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Mid-South and
Southeast.

...Lower MS Valley into parts of the Southeast and TN/OH
Valleys...
Within a deep mid/upper-level trough covering much of the
central/eastern CONUS, an initial ejecting shortwave is forecast to
move from the Great Lakes toward northern New England. Upstream of
this system, two shortwaves (one initially over the southern Rockies
and the other over the Canadian Prairies) will progress eastward and
potentially begin to phase, though some guidance spread remains
regarding the details. As this occurs, a surface low will develop
and gradually deepen as it moves from the southern Plains toward the
lower Ohio Valley.

Seasonably rich low-level moisture (with dewpoints in the 60s F)
will already be in place within the warm sector of this developing
cyclone. A reservoir of moderate buoyancy is forecast to reside from
south/east TX into LA, with somewhat weaker buoyancy farther north
and east, where relatively widespread convection will result in
weaker lapse rates and muted diurnal heating. Deep-layer shear will
remain strong through the period, and a low-level jet is expected to
develop by late afternoon and intensify through the evening, in
response to the approaching shortwave trough and surface low.

Details regarding convective evolution remain uncertain, with
multiple rounds of convection possible across much of the warm
sector. Some severe threat could develop through the morning and
into the afternoon, with guidance suggesting an increasing threat
from late afternoon into Friday night, in association with
increasing large-scale ascent and the strengthening low-level jet.
The moist and strongly sheared environment will support potential
for supercells and organized clusters, with an attendant threat of
damaging winds and a few tornadoes. Some hail will also be possible,
especially within the southwest portion of the primary threat area,
where somewhat stronger buoyancy is expected to be in place.

..Dean.. 01/07/2026

$$

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